The Moroccan Sahara and Resolution 2797: Why is Mauritanian neutrality no longer sufficient?

With instability spreading across its borders, Mauritania has become more sensitive to any regional issue that directly affects its national security. This situation recently prompted President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani to call for vigilance and a military presence in border areas in an attempt to control the borders and prevent chaos from spreading from neighboring regions.

With tensions on its borders, Mauritania faces internal political and partisan tensions and increasing economic pressures, which pose additional challenges if it continues to manage its regional issues with its previous approach, especially on matters affecting its national security. Consequently, Mauritania today appears to be required to reevaluate its positions on major security issues in its regional environment, where the maps of regional and international alliances are changing at an unprecedented pace.

In this context, the issue of the Moroccan Sahara stands out as one of the most sensitive issues for Mauritania, given its proximity to its borders and Nouakchott's historical policy of positive neutrality to maintain a balance in its relations with Morocco and Algeria. However, Security Council Resolution 2797, issued last October, which considered Morocco's autonomy proposal to be the most realistic solution to end the conflict, and called for negotiations involving Morocco and the Polisario Front with the participation of Mauritania and Algeria, presents Mauritania with an opportunity to finalize its position, taking into account its internal and external security, especially in light of the Polisario Front's continued attacks near its borders and the tense situation in the Sahel and Mali.

This means that Resolution 2797 provides Mauritania with an international reference point that helps it clarify its position on a sensitive issue that affects its national security, at a time when the region is undergoing rapid changes, most notably the deterioration of the security situation in the Sahel, the rise of military rule, changing alliances, the stagnation of the Arab Maghreb Union, and increasing international competition between the US, China, Russia, and Turkey over ports, energy, scarce resources, and the formation of supply chains, with the rise of armed militias supported by various parties and the rise of ISIS and Al-Qaeda, all of which require Mauritania to take a bolder approach to the issue of the Moroccan Sahara in particular.

Accordingly, the Mauritanian Foreign Ministry's call to update its foreign policy doctrine, announced by Minister Mohamed Salem Ould Merzouk a few days ago, is a remarkable step at this particular time. Does this mean that Nouakchott now recognizes the need to clarify its positions on sensitive issues such as the Moroccan Sahara and to ensure that its foreign policy is in line with regional and international developments?

The answer seems to lie in the fact that the statement reflects a realization within decision-making institutions that the old policy can no longer tolerate ambiguity or hesitation, indicating that the old diplomatic doctrine is no longer appropriate in a world of intense competition between major powers, which calls for a more pragmatic diplomacy based on clearly defining interests before building alliances.

I believe that this call reflects a Mauritanian attempt to recalibrate its diplomatic compass in a region that can no longer afford to wait. Here, Resolution 2797 presents an opportunity for Nouakchott: it provides diplomatic cover to clarify its position on the Sahara issue in a calculated manner and allows it to redefine its neutrality in a practical and realistic way, in line with its approach to modernizing its foreign policy toward multiple pragmatism, given the international competition in its environment.

However, others believe that Nouakchott's move to modernize its diplomatic doctrine merely reflects its transition from a policy of risk avoidance to one of risk management, and that it will continue its approach of “positive neutrality” towards the Sahara issue and support the UN process as defined by Resolution 2797, allowing it to maintain its position as a balanced and moderate country, avoiding the cost of taking sides in a complex regional conflict.

It seems that Mauritania is about to emerge from the gray area in its foreign policy, especially with the shifts in the Sahel, the pressures of the regional reality, and the security of its northern borders, which is directly linked to the issue of the Moroccan Sahara. The question today is not whether it will change its policy, but how it will redefine its neutrality in a region that cannot afford to wait. The Sahel and its tensions require it to be vigilant and cautious in order to protect its national security, and updating its doctrine will be futile without a decisive and bold stance on the Sahara issue, as the first test of the seriousness of this shift.

Dr. Amal Jabbour. Jordanian writer and journalist