Trump warns that he will contest the elections

Even last year, Donald Trump's discourse revolved around two axes: the wall and the rejection of illegal migrants; and growth and its fiscal policy. In mid-July 2019, the IMF predicted a GDP of 2.6% for the American Union and 1.9% for this year. 

The pandemic has turned everything upside down to such an extent that the international organisation anticipates a 4.3 percent fall in America's GDP and a 3.1 percent recovery by 2021.

Only China will grow this year by 1.9% or perhaps more if the data for the fourth quarter is equal to or even more favourable than that reported by the National Statistics Office (NSO) for the third quarter with a growth of 4.9%.

The trade war waged by Trump himself against China, in fact taken to other fronts such as that of the technological contest with accusations of espionage and through friction in geopolitics with an open military and space race are part of this scenario now rarefied by a virus that was misinformed from the beginning by China and the WHO. 

Someone has won this war and someone has lost it, unless for Trump it is just another battle on his front against the Chinese Communist Party and he hopes to give them a blow if he is re-elected on 3 November.

The US president has a double front: one in the international arena, which dignitaries and from which countries do they really want to get along with Trump for another four years? Beyond Israel, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Hungary...

The other front is internal: without their best weapon, economic strength, the people of certain minority groups still have a lot of resentment and feel betrayed; it is not the same scenario as four years ago when the Obama effect brought an outsider into the White House.

His emboldened speech under a current of bubbling nationalism brought him to power, however, all this time in government has given people the opportunity to get to know him in practice: tyrannical, authoritarian, narcissistic, fractious and illogical in his decision-making, his multiple frictions with the people in his cabinet and other ministers have not gone unnoticed.

His profile blurs an impulsive person, a leader with such pressure and responsibility should not provoke his Twitter account to make threats to other rulers as he did to the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, much less to throw another counterpart, as Europeans witnessed when he violently pushed Dusko Markovic, prime minister of Montenegro, aside during a NATO meeting.

The election on 3 November will be one in which the world will be very much on the lookout, all the more so because there are doubts as to how Trump will react if he loses by a small margin to Biden.    

That is the crux of the matter, the margin of victory. Every vote will be essential, and Biden knows that he has decided to tighten his campaign in Texas because Hispanic suffrage can make a huge difference this time. 

Primarily, the young Hispanic vote, that of the 18 to 24 year olds who are in universities or who have been left at the door of one; of those Hispanics who have seen their loved ones die of coronavirus, neglected by a health system that excludes and discriminates against them. 

As of mid-October, eight and a half million people in the United States had been infected and more than 222,000 had died of coronaviruses; both African Americans and Hispanics are the two minority groups most affected by the pandemic as they are twice as likely to die because they are outside the health system.

There are 50 million Latinos living in the United States, concentrated in five of the states with the largest electoral college vote: Florida, New York, California, Illinois and Texas.

How many will be able to vote on November 3rd? Daniel Ureña, president of The Hispanic Council, clarifies that this is 32 million Hispanics who are "a record number" for the first time in history because "they constitute the largest ethnic or racial minority".

In the voice of Cesar Martinez, the numbers give a great responsibility in the key states: Florida, Arizona and Texas: "Hispanics are diverse and 60% are of Mexican origin; fundamentally it is a very attractive vote because they do not vote en bloc as the African-American vote does for the Democratic Party".

This makes it very interesting, says the political consultant in the United States, who also recalls that in the last ten years many Venezuelans have become citizens.

"We have to watch with special attention what will happen in Texas from these last days before the election, there will be a fascinating game because if Texas is decided by the Latinos and the Democratic Party wins it, I don't know when the Republican Party can win another presidential election", points out Martinez.

In the same vein, Octavio Hinojosa, points out that Texas is the second most populous state in the country with 25 million people and the second most electoral votes: a total of 38.

"That's why we see that Biden is investing money in spots in Texas... hopefully he will be able to get Hispanics to vote, he knows that he must win the Hispanic vote to keep the state and to win the election," he adds.

The director and founder of Plus Ultra Strategies LLC argues that in previous elections the Hispanic vote has been less than 38% and Biden needs that share to rise to 45% in Texas; and there is also Florida that if "Biden wins it" will be very favorable to him.

It is very difficult to put the Hispanic vote in the same box, adds Roberto Izurieta, professor at George Washington University, not only because of its interests and cultural and ideological approaches but also because it depends on where you live.

"Texas, California and New York, with the electoral college system, are states that have been played out over the past 20 years, with Texas being won by the Republicans and California and New York by the Democrats; but this time Texas may come as a surprise and be quite disputed, for me it is key in the political equation of the United States," the academic debates. 

How will the immigration issue influence this election? Martínez said that although it is a relevant issue, it is not currently among the top three priorities of the average American.

"The migration issue is approached from the point of view of how the pandemic is affecting this group and Trump's response is to ignore it and many people must work in the fields or in factories packing or producing... therefore, they are the most exposed to the virus; people right now are thinking about the economic damage and the health damage caused by the pandemic," he says from Atlanta.

The wall has also been an erroneous policy on the part of Trump, which has treated migrant people as enemies or invaders. There are many wrong messages, Izurieta insists, recalling how recently the president himself disdained the virus after leaving the hospital, taking off his mask and telling people not to be afraid of the coronavirus. 

"It is to be expected that the management of the pandemic will end up taking its toll, he has denied it from the beginning, has been slow to react and when he has fallen ill he has said what he has said... but the common citizen does not have a team of doctors to look after him as a priority as has happened with Trump," he says thoughtfully.

Izurieta calls Trump a "polling station accident" in the 2016 elections because although he did not win the popular vote and lost it by three million if he was able to win the electoral vote for three states.

He insists that the forthcoming elections will be a referendum on Donald Trump and everything negative he has done will have an influence; not only within the EU but also outside it there are sectors that expect the Democrats to display all their capabilities and win.

What is the outlook for the night of 3 November? Trump has already warned that he will appeal against the result if there is a narrow margin between him and Biden by objecting to election "fraud".

It will be, he warns, a "very long" night in which difficulties are already anticipated because there are 51 elections in each state, each with its own rules governing the elections.

"I am personally concerned about certain Republican governors who instead of encouraging and promoting the vote are suppressing it; in Texas the governor decided to leave only one place per county to cast the vote that means making it more difficult for people to exercise their right to vote; In Texas, the governor decided to leave only one place per county to cast a ballot, which means making it harder for people to vote; in some counties, where the territory is larger than a state, this inequality can cause people to choose not to exercise their vote; and with regard to absentee voting, there are federal judges who are allowing voters to register their vote at a later date," explains the founder of Plus Ultra Strategies, LLC.

Then there's the margin of the result, the game is that it can be over seven points, if it's under or even under three points, then Trump won't stand idly by.