Vice President Harris, the Democratic choice to take down Trump
Expectation is the word. Until a little over a week ago, the financial and stock markets themselves took Trump's return to the White House for granted in the face of a physically and mentally depleted Biden. In Europe, at least, they were predicting it.
Now they do not. After Biden's resignation and the closing of Democratic ranks around Harris's candidacy, the presidential race is heating up, opening up a period of uncertainty, because both Trump and Harris can win.
Several European leaders have spoken out about the new political-electoral scenario in the United States, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who sees a victory for the 59-year-old Harris as ‘very possible’.
"Nothing is certain. The election campaign has become very exciting with the arrival of Kamala Harris. She is a competent and experienced politician who can win the election, but the American voters will decide,’ Scholz said during a press conference in Berlin.
The German leader also commented that he has had the opportunity to speak several times with Vice-President Harris and said that, in his opinion, she is a very competent and experienced politician. As a lawyer, she enjoys enormous popularity among left-wing groups, especially in the suburbs, as well as in the African-American and Latin American immigrant community.
‘She knows what she wants and what she can do. She has a very clear vision of the role of her country, the evolution of the world and the challenges we are all facing,’ the German chancellor said.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymir Zelenski, did not want to wait and asked his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, to speak on the phone with Phil Gordon, the Vice-President's National Security Advisor. He did so to convey his congratulations and his willingness to continue working together to find peace and stop the Russian invasion.
Zelenski referred to this conversation by recalling that he had the opportunity to speak with Vice President Harris during the peace summit organised last month in Switzerland.
The likelihood that Harris will become President is a reassurance to Ukraine that she will continue to enjoy Washington's support, provided that the Democrats win a majority in both houses of the legislature. In Ukraine, the press speaks hopefully in terms of ‘continuity and predictability’.
A Bloomberg article alludes to Europeans pinning their hopes on Harris, but at the same time beginning to weave ties with Trump's team. Anything can happen, the election has become a coin flip.
Political analyst Samuel Stolton points out that it is Harris's foreign policy and US security views that many European nations find attractive.
"Harris has previously argued for the importance of US involvement in global affairs, a view that contrasts with Trump's isolationism. Another advantage for Europe is that Harris's national security adviser, Philip Gordon, has a deep knowledge of Europe and its security needs,’ according to the Brussels-based journalist.
On the contrary, the Kremlin continues to support Trump's return to the White House, as does Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has never concealed his affection for either Trump or Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
Reuters reports the words of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, asked by journalists about the presence of Harris to compete electorally against Trump.
"In recent years, what has been happening in the United States has taught us not to be surprised by anything. So we were not very surprised; here in Moscow we have never noticed any kind of interest or contribution from Harris to relations with Russia,’ he said.
For his part, Spain's Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, has spoken out, dedicating words of friendship and respect first and foremost to President Biden because his decision has shown great vision and a sense of state.
‘He is the president and has always taken the decisions he has considered best for the United States and for the United States’ relationship with its partners and allies in the world, and therefore I am sure that this was the right decision,’ Albares defended.
Regarding Vice-President Harris, the Foreign Affairs Minister mentioned that there are still many months to go before the elections and we will have to wait for the Democratic Party to decide how best to choose its candidate.
What will the process for choosing her look like? According to an Associated Press count, twenty-four hours after Biden's resignation from the nomination, Harris gathered the necessary support of 1,976 delegates that will allow her to present herself at the Democratic convention as the most endorsed candidate in a primary.
In fact, the president himself has asked the 14 million Democratic Party members who voted for him to transfer those votes to Harris, and in a laudable gesture he made the 96 million dollars donated to Biden's campaign available to Harris.
The Associated Press reports that the party is contemplating moving Harris' formal nomination forward and doing so remotely, that is, virtually, before 7 August.
‘We are living through an unprecedented and historic moment, and as a party we are approaching it with the seriousness it deserves and above all it will be a transparent process,’ said Jaime Harrison, chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
Can she have rivals within the Democratic Party? Yes. The key date will be what happens between 30 July and 1 August, when the internal voting begins and should be scheduled for 7 August.
By then, Harris should have his vice president chosen. The New York Times notes that the Oakland-born vice president has a wide range of options: Josh Shapiro, 51, elected governor of Pennsylvania in 2022, a key state electorally speaking; there is also Mark Kelly, 60, senator from Arizona; politician Gretchen Whitmer, 52, governor of Michigan; or Andy Beshear, 46, governor of Kentucky, a solidly Republican state; or JB Pritzker, 59, governor of Illinois since 2019; and the popular Gavin Newsom, 56, governor of California.
And if Harris wins?
Two days before Biden dropped out of the presidential race, most US polls showed an average 8-point gap over Republican nominee Donald Trump, who saw his popularity swell after the July 13 failed assassination attempt on him at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
But Harris is turning him around and has entered the electoral battle: in her first week as favourite to win the Democratic nomination, a CBS poll showed the following percentages in voting intentions: women would vote 52% for Harris and 47% for Trump; among African-American voters, 76% prefer Harris to 21% who would vote for the Republican; and among Generation Z voters aged 18 to 29, 62% choose Vice President Harris to 37% for Trump.
Yet another IPSOS poll, from 21 July, conducted among a random sample of adults, shows Harris with a 44% share of preferences compared to Trump's 42%.
In Europe they already know that the campaign will be fought neck and neck and that the businessman will not have it easy, so much so that there are many who talk about the fact that in the United States there will be a woman in the Presidency for the first time. However, the question that already hangs in the air among Europeans anticipates the coming tussle: if Harris wins by a narrow margin, will Trump concede defeat and will he once again whip up his supporters to take to the streets in protest?
On 6 January 2021, just days before Trump was due to hand over the keys to the White House to Biden, a crowd stormed the Capitol and occupied it for the longest hours in Washington in living memory. Last year, Trump was indicted by a federal jury on four counts, including conspiracy, obstruction of a legal proceeding and witness tampering. The indictment stated that ‘the defendant spread lies’ and accused Biden of committing voter fraud, even though he knew it was false.