Threat of armed conflict in the South Caucasus
As an admirer and disciple of Vladimir Putin, Ilham Aliyev, the disguised dictator who has ruled Azerbaijan for the past twenty years, also wants to expand his territorial and strategic domain.
A few weeks ago, he successfully blitzed Armenia to take control of the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, and has already threatened to do the same with the lesser-known but no less contested Zangezur Corridor, also in the troubled South Caucasus.
The Zangezur Corridor is a narrow passage between the borders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran, where the small railway town of Meghiri is located. In Soviet times, when the most insignificant border incidents in the territory it covered were drastically hushed up, the Corridor was already the scene of some incidents that ended in 1993 with the closure of the railway linking the region.
In a detailed report recently published by the Washington Post, the Azerbaijani claim to the Corridor is, unsurprisingly, believed to be backed by Russia. Azerbaijan, which in the days of the USSR was home to one of its nuclear arsenals, is, since the break-up of the USSR, among the Caucasian countries that achieved independence, the one that maintains the best relations with Moscow.
According to the newspaper, the urgency to take control of an enclave of little interest with the railway out of service, taking advantage of the military weakness demonstrated by Armenia, responds not only to the ambitions of the despot Aliyev, but also to Putin's need to find outlets for gas and oil that are very limited after the economic sanctions that were applied in response to the invasion of Ukraine two years ago.
The conflict that threatens to erupt at this stage of serious global destabilisation affects several countries in addition to those on the border. Iran seems unwilling to see the border with Armenia altered, while the other country most involved, Turkey, is said to be willing to accept it. Relations between Christian Armenia and Muslim Turkey are not usually good, and the sad memory of the Armenian Holocaust is always a heavy one. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on the other hand, does have good relations with Russia, and would not object, but would also see advantages.
The government in Baku is celebrating its success in Nagorno-Karabakh and is keeping quiet about its plans for the Zangezur Corridor, but the ambassador in Washington did not deny the news, but merely played it down, assuring that Azerbaijan has no "military objectives" in mind, which is interpreted as an attempt to incorporate the Corridor in a peaceful manner. We will have to wait and see.