US primaries: Trump's good luck is with him
Donald Trump's success in the Iowa caucuses is more than likely to be repeated this week in the New Hampshire primaries, which really open the race to win the nomination for the presidential election in November. The two major parties vying for power in the United States are taking part, but the fact that the Democrats include Joe Biden, the current president seeking re-election, is of particular interest to the Republicans and especially to the controversial Donald Trump.
Firstly, there is the fear that the former president will win the nomination and lead to a repeat of the election of three years ago with the same candidates. The prospect of Trump returning to the White House, and this time with the aggressiveness that reflects his past defeat, causes real excitement among his fanatical and exalted supporters just as it arouses fear among the rest of Americans and many foreigners, including the greater fear that his viscerality will contribute to precipitating the world war that the evolution of current conflicts makes so much to be feared.
The unease generated by this concern is compounded by the good fortune that accompanies his vindictive pretensions to begin with. One of them is the chaotic situation within the Republican party, both among the divided leadership and among the warring militants. The division created by Trump, his controversial past and the weight of the more than ninety impeachments he faces, has created political confusion even among the majority and the resulting leadership on Capitol Hill. On the other hand, he also benefits from a dearth of competitors.
The last-minute abandonment of the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, largely due to the scant support he had been enjoying and above all to the bankruptcy of the economic budget he was counting on, leaves the main alternative to Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, with whom he then had major disagreements, which now support his claims and accusations in which, among other things, he denounces his mental disability. Judging by some of the accusations made by the two, their confrontation is more a settling of scores than a political rivalry. Haley faces a slim chance of succeeding and staying in the battle if she fails to mitigate her expected defeat with a decent result that would allow her to retain her candidacy for the primaries in other states. In principle, the polls give Trump a ten-point lead.
The hope in New Hampshire is to capitalise on the votes that DeSantis would have won, despite the fact that when he announced his resignation he surprisingly recommended that his votes go to Trump, whom he had always attacked mercilessly. Many analysts who are surprised by the popular support Trump is getting, despite having most of the media against him and everything that has been known about his problems with the justice system, are beginning to consider that stopping him is only in the hands of a disqualification decreed by the Supreme Court. In Maine and Colorado, state courts have already banned him from participating in the primaries in their states on charges of rebellion and insurrection.