One year since the pogrom, and so what?
The RAE defines pogrom as “Massacre -accepted or promoted by the power- of Jews and, by extension, of other ethnic groups. Massacre, which in the case that concerns us, was the result of a well calculated, hidden and perfectly prepared armed incursion by land and air, perpetrated in the territory of Israel by elements of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas Gaza and, in which about twelve hundred Jews were killed and two hundred others were captured alive and forced to go with them to the Gaza Strip, of which about half have not yet been rescued or their whereabouts are unknown.
So far, we have only known and seen ad nauseam scenes of war, thousands of casualties (an estimated 40,000 although the figures are from the unreliable attacked side) and desolation after that fleeting but accurate armed incursion -which, incidentally, embarrassed the Israeli intelligence services for not knowing how to detect it in time and their delayed reaction capacity-.
On the side of high-level strategies, Israel's diverse and staggered reactions to counter Iran's initiatives to feed the continuity of the battle in harassment of the Israeli population are well known.
Actions, carried out by their like-minded groups or proxies (the Palestinians of Hamas in Gaza and the Shiites of Hezbollah in parts of Syria and Lebanon, certain Houthi groups in Yemen and other terrorist corpuscles scattered throughout Iraq and Syria), and even by means of Iranian initiatives based on missiles and drones of their own manufacture.
The latter incursions, with little military success thanks to their approach and programming not very reserved, not to say published live, and to the effectiveness of Israel's own anti-aircraft defense means or those of its close allies in the area, Europe and on the other side of the Atlantic. Israel, in a calculated way, has been able to open and dissect the melon of its four different and most important fronts in order to shoot them down one by one, without confronting them in open field.
They do not fight hand to hand, but from a distance and with very sophisticated, precise and powerful means that make it almost impossible not to be a target that can be easily shot by Israeli bombs (many or almost all of them of American manufacture), even if they are buried several meters deep and use hospitals, schools and other social centers as human shields to detract the attacker's desires and, on the other hand, to use them as propaganda of humanitarian barbarism, if they are not taken into consideration.
After this last and certainly frustrated Iranian air strike a few days ago, we are in a brief pause to know the direction and entity of the Israeli response on Iran. A response that will be produced when the current Jewish Christmas is over and/or when the bilateral negotiations achieve progress in the continuity and permissions of external support; especially from the US.
Support which, although very necessary for Israel's freedom of action and ability to maneuver against Iran, is not being requested at one of the best moments because the outcome of the imminent US elections, the line chosen by the winning candidate, its clarity or categoricalness and the degree of urgency in adopting the final measures are not at all clear.
Israel, due to the distance to the targets and the degree of protection of the same, cannot confront Iran on its own, nor destroy the entire system and infrastructure of its nuclear enrichment program or the fuel storage tanks.
On the other hand, the irreparable economic and industrial consequences that the total or significant destruction of its infrastructures for the extraction and shipment of oil to the West would bring to the world and the difficulty to keep safe the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz (a place through which, necessarily, most of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz is shipped to the West), The two old trump cards that Iran is keeping in its barrel and is playing again in the hope that the International Community (IC) will not support or allow Israel to adopt either of the two.
A few days ago I published a paper in this same network or publication in which I predicted, once again, that “the wolf” was not going to attack with full force and that both sides will play for a long time to give each other several of those false blows between boxers, who pretending to want to hurt each other, in reality, are only worth to continue with the game or to wait for the clarifying tempo to pass and to act in a more forceful way, if it is the case and the conditions allow it.
The rest of the IC is neither here nor expected; the small but resolute powers such as France, the United Kingdom and Germany seem to be more inclined in favor of their nearby Israel as the only democratic country in the East and having suffered the attack first, but there is little they can do.
Others, however, have taken the wrong path, such as Spain and some Central European or Nordic countries, by directly or indirectly favoring Iran and Palestine, an attitude that only serves to leave corpses and break relations between their former friends. Russia and China are waiting for the development of events.
They are keeping a calm and low profile as they are aware and aware that this conflict is wearing down the West, dividing or confronting its members and will always result in huge profits for them, mainly with the oil issue. At the same time, it gives them a free hand, due to lack of control, means or time, to act in the African continent where they can act with almost absolute impunity.
The UN is totally misguided; so much so that its Secretary General has just been declared persona non grata for Israel because of the role played by himself and the drift of the organization he directs. The EU, non-existent in foreign policy, attends as an inoperative spectator, once again, to assassinations and wars whose solution is far beyond its reach because it has neither the means nor the will to act.
The Arab world is divided between both sides, although it seems that more Arab countries are closer to Israel than to Iran because of their anti-Semitic theories of a military and political nature, and even their conception of Shiism which, although some share and practice this religious modality, in some crucial aspects are totally contrary to their own.
The Ukrainian conflict will worsen because this Iranian-Israeli war is likely to continue in time and maybe even in intensity, which will force the USA (Zelenski's main supporter and advocate) to withdraw efforts and means of all kinds; which, undoubtedly, will not be good for the future or the final outcome of the Ukrainian conflict. It is clear that this conflict has demonstrated the important role played by intentional and targeted propaganda through the media (many state or state-subsidized) and the dangerous social networks.
The pro-Palestinian campaign is winning the battle by a landslide and many millions of people around the world can no longer remember who started the attacks or the consequences of the pogrom that is now a year old.
In short, almost without realizing it, a year has passed since that pogrom and although it may not seem so, things at all levels, and not only at the regional level, have become very complicated and may become even worse if they fall into the spiral of unrestrained violence already opened in channel; which seems likely to happen because Israel feels very hurt, attacked and vilified internationally so it is willing to use all means and strategies at its disposal, whenever they feel that their continuity as a State is clearly threatened.
For Jews all over the world, this pogrom, saving distances, is the second one they suffer after the holocaust of the Nazis in Europe during World War II and that, undoubtedly, are very hard words or greater.