The post-COVID-19 world
Without wishing to enter into disquisitions about the provenance, the culprits or the nature of the agents that facilitated the spread of the infection and its subsequent transformation into a pandemic following the declaration by the WHO as such, I am in a position to state that COVID-19 has more than fulfilled the criteria and objectives of a biological weapon as part of weapons of mass destruction (WMD); to produce, increase and expand a disproportionate and exceptional amount of fear among people and states, and in short, to result in tremendous chaos and unstoppable lack of control in all aspects, with health, political, economic, social and relational repercussions.
Right now, when the battle to combat the infection is still in full swing, it is still too early to clearly define what the final situation will be at a global level after the pandemic and to clearly outline the true consequences on a broad spectrum of society and global relations after the passing of the epidemic and its consequent effects after the fight; as well as whether we will be able to return to a situation of normality similar to the current one or, on the contrary, the economic and industrial world and its social and cultural relations will undergo major changes or transformations.
It is certainly not the first pandemic to hit the globe; just to mention some of the most important ones, we have antecedents in ancient Greece, in the Roman Empire, the plague of the Middle Ages, at the beginning of the last century with the wrongly named Spanish flu, AIDS, avian flu and Ebola. Actually, in order to fight it we have not evolved much, all of them were suffered, passed and overcome in a very similar way, avoiding the infections, locking themselves in their houses and despising contact with those who, because they came from territories or places potentially infected, had a high probability of being carriers of the evil in all those moments.
Neither is this pandemic, which at the moment and in the face of possible outbreaks this autumn-winter, the one that has produced the most casualties; AIDS, for example, is the cause of millions of deaths and, after its appearance, our customs really only changed in some very specific and almost determined aspects of how to carry out our sexual relations with certain people and/or with greater prophylactic precautions. Others have been more bark less bite, and there are even other types of endemics, typical of certain territories, which are still there on a permanent basis and despite being very contagious, rarely cross the borders where they occur, spread and encapsulate.
So why all the panic and fuss over COVID-19? The explanations to this question are somewhat complex and most of them are derived from three fundamental elements: world globalisation and the propaganda media, the fact that no real physical contact between two people is required for their infection and certain circumstances that have occurred depending on the situation and political, economic, social and relational capacity, which both the world in general and countries in particular have been suffering for some years and which are becoming more acute these days. First of all, we are in a world that has lost its true international leadership; for many decades we were used to the United States pulling the strings and putting certain solutions, mainly economic ones, on the table; or taking responsibility behind their backs to make it easier for numerous countries to get out of the hole they were in.
Today, in spite of the fact that the United States continues to be the world's leading economy, the contempt and even high risk with which they are received in many places where they are deployed, the high cost in lives and money for their coffers that this implies, the reduction of the need to import foreign elements to supply their own needs, the appearance of new and more important strategic objectives and the presence of the peculiar Trump in the White House have caused the country to tend to lose this role in the international era supported by the aforementioned realities, its selfishness and an extreme nationalism (America First).
The world is totally globalised and of a tremendously transversal nature; the concepts of great distances and restrictions on the freedom of movement of people, capital or things do not exist or have almost disappeared. Everything affects everyone, and when a giant sneezes, everyone uses a thermometer and takes an aspirin because they know that the cold will come sooner rather than later. The game with WMD research, development and transfer is becoming more and more widespread and patent. Two months ago, there were almost no insurmountable borders, which in turn lead to the rapid and silent spread of any type of infection if the necessary precautions are not taken, as has been the case in many cases, mainly and so far, in Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States.
It is precisely the generalisation and proliferation of movements and the celebration of massive events that propitiate all types of health contagion. The airports, now deserted and some only partially open to humanitarian flights, had become real giant anthills, where people in their millions moved around, in short and direct contact; they travelled in real sardine cans, in which by increasing profits and lowering prices they gained all the space to badly accommodate some unfortunate passengers who had real physical problems to complete their journeys. It goes without saying that the great world sporting, festive, cultural and musical events concentrated hundreds of thousands of people in spaces too small for the high number of participants at the expense of proper hygiene conditions.
The International Community (IC) and its major agencies such as the UN, WHO, EU, IMF, European Central Bank, World Bank and NATO, which already had some or major shortcomings in terms of funding, cohesion, leadership and efficiency, have all been overwhelmed in their initial forecasts and have therefore shown little real and empirical value in analysing and predicting the harshness of events, taking responsibility, drawing up alternatives and supporting their members quickly, efficiently and effectively.
The aftermath of the past and recent global economic crisis has led to and created a large group of countries burdened by the effects of the crisis that manage to survive barely or are very far behind the leading positions; they had not yet covered the minimum requirements in terms of cleaning up their deficit and debt levels, so it will be very difficult for them to emerge from the consequent economic crisis by themselves, and we will see if even from a financial point of view, which will undoubtedly follow this health crisis and there is no doubt that it will bring much more serious consequences than those of 2008.
To the alluded lack of real world leadership, it is necessary to add that the majority of the countries of certain organisation are managed by governments that are not prepared at all, very poorly trained and 'led' by such unprofessional characters that in the face of any eventuality they make decisions of real amateurs; which brings them greater problems than real solutions to the different pitfalls and obstacles that appear daily in this type of crisis; many of them are no more than normal consequences of their poor forecasts or harmful previous management.
Nationalism and regionalism make states and some regions concentrate inwards and quarrel among themselves rather than looking for a common position, policy and solution. Situations that, generally, result in a great lack of trust, secrecy and a serious concealment of the facts, thereby annulling the necessary exchange of information to curb this type of problem.
Another very common and quite common factor in most of the affected countries has been the high percentage of deaths among the so-called elderly. People who, due to recent habits or customs, which are very widespread, tend or are forced by social and family issues to spend their last years of life in specialised residences. Residences that, due to social distortion or to self-conviction that we do our best with our elderly, we have confused with real qualified health centres capable of facing all kinds of crises or pandemics. This is far from reality; coupled with the fact that life in them is quite crowded with the obligatory daily contact, a great and widespread fear of easy contagion on their part, an anachronistic and strange priority - almost official - to occupy a bed in the ICUs for people over 65 years and the circumstance of being isolated from their families, they have been left to die like bedbugs, alone and with palliative care in the best of cases. Situations and circumstances that should be thoroughly investigated as a whole, and separately, because, in my opinion, it could lead to mass euthanasia, forced and not consented to by those involved, or their relatives.
The health systems of most Western countries, despite what was thought and proclaimed boastful and previously, were overwhelmed almost from the outset; they proved quite incapable of dealing with the high peaks of the pandemic at any given time and, to add to the failure rate, like seasoned warriors, showed up to fight this virus - already known about it over a month beforehand - without many of the appropriate and necessary diagnostic, protection or care materials. As a result of all this, the results and infections among their personnel have been scandalous, especially in Spain.
The political and health authorities in most of these countries had ignored the many warnings from WHO and, by reacting late to the procurement of such materials, were left dependent on the vagaries of price and supply from a market of Chinese pirates and their nefarious intermediaries who have turned out to be virtually the only ones in the world who could supply them.
Another health crisis like this one that we are suffering and, we will see what the results and final consequences will be if anyone is interested in quantifying them, is the one that is developing over thousands of people who make up the group known as the chronically ill, who periodically need to be visited by specialists in external hospital care to follow the evolution of their illness or to adjust their medication. Hospital consultations in Spain have been closed since March 11 and, after almost two months of that, almost nobody is speaking about them or remembers them. There is no known plan to recover them in person - even if it were on the basis of a strict triage or taking advantage of other types of premises that have been set up for health issues and are now being closed - for all specialities or at least for the most fundamental ones such as psychological ones, psychiatric, neurological, coronary, and urological diseases that have such an influence on those who are sick, who need air and a stroll, and who find themselves locked up in their homes for many, many weeks. The blockage that is being produced by this absence of visits, together with the usual ordinary delays and the increase in this type of patients due to the forced living conditions, according to the experts, will produce a serious and dangerous increase in them and, in time, we will see the consequences.
A similar thing has happened with funeral systems and capacities in countries with large numbers of deceased. In spite of being many, varied and even sophisticated or luxurious, in the countries with the greatest number of casualties almost all of them were overwhelmed and it was necessary to opt for imaginative 'ad hoc' solutions to alleviate somewhat the hard swallow created by such a situation that has forced to postpone in many days the closing of the service. In some countries and places it has been necessary to resort to mass graves for people without resources in remote places as if they were the bodies of a great battle and urged to make them disappear from sight in the shortest time possible.
With regard to the dead, although it is not a very tasty dish, they have been almost hidden from sight and mind because their number and presence offers a bad image of management and reduces votes; so much so that there have even been governments, such as the Spanish one, that despite the fact that there are many more than 23,000 officially dead, it has not yet decreed any act of national mourning; it seems that it clearly and manifestly resists this.
Inexplicably and for truly hidden reasons or due to an excess of precautions on the part of professionals in the field, despite the impossibility of being able to bury or incinerate human remains with any degree of speed, in many countries the corresponding and more than necessary autopsies were not carried out, which would very possibly have led to the discovery of or provide clues about the main affected organs on which the virus finally acts in order to tackle it more efficiently. This situation is obligatory in cases of deaths in strange circumstances or without clear knowledge of the causes of death.
A crisis in which acts of propaganda and the creation of hoaxes by everyone, including or fundamentally those coming from governments, have monopolised the daily attention of the media and the exhausting press-mittee conferences, seasoned with modulated gatherings, with a reduced number of chat-rooms, which, with full freedom of movement, move from one stage to another throughout the day. Talks and conferences that have not ceased to try to influence minds and to sully the desire to obtain real information on the part of some tired and submissive citizens who have been locked up for more than 45 days and are on their way to the 60's or more, who are tried to be satisfied, mislead or appease them with songs, applause and stories with a happy ending and hiding from them the real health, social and economic tragedies derived from a very poor and very improvable management of a crisis without parallel in the last hundred years.
The progressive way out of this crisis - euphorically called de-escalation by some - has not been homogeneous or similar in all the countries of the world for very evident reasons; it varies according to the number of infections and their evolution, the number of deaths, the number of tests carried out on the population and the availability or not of measures and means of protection and isolation. As these variables have been applied in a different way, form and time in each one of them, the above-mentioned health and economic or labour de-scalation will also be different and it is very possible that, in some of them, for many businesses and complete sectors such as tourism, hotels and restaurants, leisure and, to a large extent, culture, they will never get out of the hole they are in or there will still be too many months left for their exit to be a complete or clear reality.
If we add to this the fact that the WHO has been hesitant, that NATO has not been and is not prepared to fight a biological pandemic or to assist its allies in need in a proper manner, that the EU has not been able to cover itself up in time, that countries such as Italy and Spain, open and friendly as good Mediterraneans, are in the hands of timid governments, very unprepared and not at all far-sighted, who did not want to anticipate their precautionary measures even though the problem was well exposed and developed, and that at least three self-centred rulers like Trump, Boris Johnson and Bolsonaro (more than one of them, actually or fictitiously infected) have laughed at the world and the looming threat, exposing highly populated countries at risk of major contagion and death, we conclude that, unfortunately, we have very well deserved it.
All this amalgamation of facts, complicated situations, decisions not taken in time or poorly taken in substance, time and form, has led the world into a situation of true chaos never before seen. Such chaos that in less than two months three quarters of the world's population have been confined to their homes, despite the fact that, as has been said before, this pandemic has not been one of the most serious in terms of the number of people infected or killed.
It is said and understood that the times and aftermath of crises must be used to suppress the superfluous, learn from mistakes and emerge stronger. Usually, after every big crisis, the pressures to which the situation of stress submits us force us to adapt several or many changes in our ways, habits, customs, systems of work and defense of all kinds to face the risks and threats that it supposes. Changes or adaptations that are not necessarily all negative, some have meant an acceleration of processes already underway and there are also certainly positive ones; therefore, it has been possible to verify the endurance of good support and the massive operation of networks on the Internet; buying via this medium and not in person ( tele-purchasing); the great push of tele-working and the forced non-use of cash and, therefore, the drop in attendance at ATMs and bank branches. All these facts must be analyzed with seriousness and prudence because of the more than foreseeable disappearances of many small companies and so that they do not become a great void through which many companies cut salaries or jobs, once this adversity is over.
I have the feeling that the borders will once again make sense, or at least recover some of their origins and usefulness; they will not be as open as they have been in recent times. In fact, a certain amount of control is needed over those who enter and leave through them in large numbers, so that they can be closed off to the trafficking of people and things at the slightest hint of alarm. The times of free movement without any kind of health control prior to or at the time of crossing, at least for people, have gone by for quite a few years at least.
To finish with the review of the factors or elements of negative aspect; last but not least, we are facing the great differences and quarrels between countries to opt for certain regional or world leaderships, to dominate the world economically or the serious quarrels and wars motivated by various issues even religious. Many of these confrontations will accelerate as a way of hiding the problems derived from this type of crisis.
Before starting with other more complex issues or even to be elucidated, I would like to emphasise that, although few, there have been very positive and significant facts, such as: the high degree of acceptance and compliance with the confinement measures on the population; the use of the Armed Forces almost from the beginning of the crisis in most countries taking advantage of their high degree of availability in the face of risk, their great versatility, effectiveness and discipline; as well as the rapid construction of modular and/or campaign macro hospitals to alleviate the overload of ordinary hospitals. Both of these last two are facts that should be highlighted, kept in the memory and, if possible, the object of successive trainings to keep them instructed, with updated material and for their improvement.
It is clear that, with few honourable exceptions, much more investment in health is needed at the local and national level, and contrary to Trump's idea, improving WHO's capabilities to create and maintain a health warning network would be much faster, more serious and more efficient at the global level.
This crisis, like all crises, also shows curious and unexpected effects; in this case I am referring to the support in health personnel and material arrived in Italy by Russia and Cuba. A phenomenon that has no other explanation, except the loneliness in which the EU and NATO have left a member country of both facing a real overflow of its possibilities. A phenomenon that should be studied in detail in its origins and effects and not left aside as a simple curious fact.
I believe that it should be very important not to fall into the error of opening up the channel to geolocation of a permanent nature by means of 5G and other powerful means of localisation, because once the means and systems are established, even if it is apparently for reasons of health and identification of potential carriers of the disease, the system will be implemented and we will see that certain and spurious interests hide behind them in search of other objectives and results.
For the purposes of the changes that may occur in the near future, it can be said that the world economy is about to change or has already changed completely. Very possibly, after this almost general and forced halt and confinement, the planet will face the most important economic, financial, labour and oil crisis (never has the price of oil been at negative levels as on this occasion) in its history. The depth, characteristics and repercussions of this crisis will be different for each State and will depend on the length of time that this forced shutdown lasts. Countries that are not up to their responsibilities with regard to their debt and deficit will not be able to assume their many responsibilities on their own, and to avoid suffering major disasters they will need massive support in the form of loans or subsidies from external agents to get out of this rut. Support which, in return, must be transformed into the corresponding political, economic, social and structural adjustments that these rescues will force or bring about.
Given the large and dangerous number of infected but asymptomatic people (who are the most contagious without external evidence), the world of tourism, an element that has become vital for millions of inhabitants worldwide, will tend to disappear with the same recent intensity for at least one or two years, and it is more than possible that it will never recover its current format and capacity. The demands and health controls on and by tourists during their trips and stays will force profound changes that will reduce the influx and increase the costs of all of them, so that many of the current mass and low cost packages will disappear; as well as the massive and extraordinary trips aimed at the elderly will change and be greatly reduced.
Likewise, commercial events of a massive nature such as symposiums, exhibitions, forums, fairs, cinemas, museums, as well as other recreational, sporting, cultural and social events, will have to change their format, reduce their capacity and opt for individual and collective health control measures that will change the perspective of the form and mode of attendance of spectators.
In the same way, the life of individual and collective social relations in bars, restaurants and shows - as we understand it up to now - in wide sectors of society and which involves and supposes quite a lot of closeness between people, will suffer a significant dent due to the increase in the degree of mistrust represented by the possibility of contagion of any type of illness by mere proximity without reaching real, intimate or sexual contact. This will also result, although less noticeable, in a reduction in the use of public transport and an increase in travel by means such as bicycles, motorcycles or means such as taxis or rented cars.
It is to be expected that the lack of attention or foresight in the initial moments, as well as certain types of political carelessness in the face of the crisis or the late interventions in many countries, will provoke the disaffection of the citizens towards those leaders who have put their lives in danger; have left the economy in a state of shambles or have not put on the table all the means and efforts necessary to tackle it or reduce its effects quickly and effectively.
Effects and reactions that will be able to put an end to mandates and leaders who are entrenched, consolidated and even with great prospects of re-election in the near future. On the other hand, this crisis and its effects of all kinds may even put an end to certain political experiments that have proved to be incapable of correctly dealing with bulls of great guile, weight and disposition, and it may be necessary to resort to governments of concentration or important changes in legislation in several or certain countries.
It is already clear that the differences in citizen behaviour depending on the measures adopted produce very different recovery effects from one country to another. They will clearly be more positive in those that were diligent or proactive and anticipated as much as possible the adoption of efficient measures to prevent the spread of the pandemic and in those that, depending on the health situation, may promote less restrictive measures for their citizens and leave them with a greater degree of personal freedom and sociability; above all, in a phase of the year in which temperatures in both hemispheres are neither very hot nor very cold and encourage relaxation outside the home.
Although in many overcrowded and unhealthy countries in Asia, such as India, the effects have not been as devastating as might be expected for the time being, large areas of Africa and Central and South America, although they are just beginning, are yet to be seen. It is very foreseeable that in both continents, and due to their atmospheric conditions, the problems derived from the scarcity or excessive abundance of non-potable water due to rains and floods, and the very limited sanitary capacities in general, could have devastating effects among their populations thanks to the great facility of propagation and contagion.
It will be essential to seek a global leadership and several zones that are truly decisive and capable of joining forces in disaster prevention, something that is not always easy to obtain and apply due to the current shortage of good candidates among those aspiring to the post and because often we voters are determined to keep real, self-centred, restless people who do not know the true role of what the real global or zone leader should be.
Some leaders, even the most powerful ones, may be tempted to try and divert the attention of their people about the pandemic, their mistakes in how and when to tackle it and the bad sanitary conditions in their countries by trying to look for culprits or scapegoats outside their borders and the scope of their decisions; and even dig up old hatchets to try and divert the attention of their subjects (USA-Iran).
Many others will be reluctant to accept their responsibilities, deny their negligence, and turn back in time in search of imaginary or invented blame for past opposition policies when he was in power. Very few will accept their guilt, ask for forgiveness and sincerely seek a truly shared solution.
The time for false medals and scoring successes, which in reality are not, is about to come. The way out of any crisis situation, even if it is not full or even in an uncertain and incipient way, is very prone to this kind of banal and fallacious actions.
To have almost exclusively left the mass production of health protection materials in the hands of China has been a great collective strategic error because in the event of a pandemic such as the present one, national industries are slow to get going and for a crucial time this failure will be the cause of a further spread of the disease and of great difficulties for the work and safety of health personnel.
This will, I am sure, be corrected shortly. As a result of the above and of the already mentioned dirty marketing surrounding these products, the search for alternative solutions has led in many cases to genuine fraud in the external market and to another series of shenanigans and serious commissions at home, which will undoubtedly have to be analysed by the courts once the squeeze is over.
Profound changes will undoubtedly have to be made in most countries where nursing homes are heavily employed; their connections to the health network in various countries have failed miserably, particularly in Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom.
In Spain, in particular, it will be necessary to carry out an in-depth reconsideration of the transfer of functions in health matters to the Autonomous Regions and of the role and capacity of the Ministry of Health in the process of centralizing all action concerning public health in the country in the event of epidemics; the near-dismantling of the Ministry's capacities and functions has greatly affected the speed of action and effectiveness in this situation, which must necessarily lead to a review of whether or not it is appropriate to recover certain State functions transferred in this area.
It is absolutely necessary to carry out exercises and simulations of this type of crisis situation at a high level with the involvement of all the means, forces and services of the State at a regional, national and even international level on a regular basis in order to detect faults: in the warning system, in the degree of control of the needs, in their early reaction and in the execution once the infection is in full swing; as well as to appreciate and solve the shortage of means in time and their redistribution if it occurs. This type of exercise is vital for the oiling and implementation of all the necessary means and services. Some countries, perhaps by 'chance', had done them recently and their lessons learned served them well (South Korea).
Finally, under the heading of generalizations, we must bear in mind and be prepared for an increase in poverty and consequent crime in order to survive in the impending economic crisis. A huge and serious crisis that is already knocking on the doors of many countries - no matter how hard they try to say the opposite - will produce millions of unemployed and many of them will not have access to state or regional subsidies because they are not covered by the system; consequently, famine and need, if the efforts of charity services do not supply the avalanche of demands, will result in an increase in crime, smuggling and drug trafficking. As well as murders, acts of gender violence, suicides and psychological and psychological illnesses will increase after so many days of forced confinement and also as a result of the economic crisis.
In short, by way of a summary and in general, as has been the case after past pandemics and health crises, it is very possible that this has served as the definitive push to reach milestones and effects already underway or to bring about new types of important changes in social, economic, labour and political aspects and in certain uses, habits and customs. This crisis has also served to definitively launch the use of teleworking, which is undoubtedly a great success, but with consequences yet to be determined; cash has practically ceased to be used, which is the tip of the iceberg to a phenomenon that was already pointing to disuse, harming older people who are not used to it, but, on the contrary, it favours the continued reduction of the network of bank offices and ATMs.
Other changes include a significant increase in online purchases and payments by telematic means with the consequent risks of job losses, the closure of small businesses and considerable losses in large stores, potential fraud and an urgent need to improve protection measures.
It has become clear that the degree of individual and collective health coverage will have to be reviewed; assistance that will have to be turned around significantly due to its major failures and lack of effectiveness in this pandemic. The need is defined for the rapid availability and construction of new types of material reserves as well as the permanent availability of storage facilities and strategic industries, which were closed down and moved to China years ago, and must therefore be recovered.
As very important and extremely urgent points, it must be taken into consideration that the system and coverage of nursing homes - in the world let's call it civilized - must change and improve considerably and that the maximum possible advance of national and international efforts must be made so that the consequences of the economic crisis are not greater and even more bloody than those of the health crisis.
In spite of all the above, the world as such will not change much; rogue states and terrorist movements that do not respect world peace will continue to appear, even during and after these situations; if Trump were to be laminated for re-election as a result of his disastrous management of this crisis and he does not resolve the economic one well, someone between Xi Jimping and Putin will try to replace him and not on his own merits, but because the American alternative does not offer any great guarantees of being a world leader.
The EU will test its survival and effectiveness and will suffer great lurches due to the low quality of the candidates for its leadership positions or those who govern or want to govern its member countries in the near future, and due to the political and economic tensions resulting from the necessary rescue, more or less covert, in favour of several countries, among them Italy and Spain.
I also firmly believe that most of the international bodies that make up and on which the IC is based will have to redefine their capacities and possibilities in order to avoid disappearing completely or being reduced to a very residual role, however much their current directors may pretend that such a possibility does not exist.
These are not good omens or great prospects for the road ahead in general. Many started the year thinking that this was going to be the year of the great international concerts of economic, environmental, cultural, political and social order in the style of the decade of the same number in the last century; others, at a national level, would build their Arcadias as they pleased and at full steam; but a pandemic that, although it has been of lesser entity than previous ones, simply because it was so contagious, so badly announced, worse treated and fatally fought, has been enough to make the whole world stagger, the global economy collapse, oil will be given away and for the first time many billions of people will be confined to their homes, flights will be cancelled all over the world and borders will be closed on all continents with most factories, businesses and offices forced to 'go on holiday' or closed down forever without remedy or any other final alternative.