The latest readjustments in the world order
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent dismemberment of the USSR, the clearly bipolarised world ceased to exist as such; it was from then on that many old and new actors saw the opportunity to raise their heads or stick their heads out for the first time, to see how they could fish in troubled waters and gain a corner of the world, more or less extensive, over which to exert their influence, and always with the aim of expanding within their capabilities and the fiscal and political possibilities that this space and its inhabitants could offer.
Thus, little by little, in not many years, we have seen the emergence and gaining strength of actors such as China, Iran, Turkey, the Russian Federation itself, India, as well as the misnamed Islamic State (ISIS). All of them looking for their area of influence and business where they can exert any kind of domination, weight or ascendancy. Actors to which could be added others such as North Korea or Pakistan, which are not reluctant to live encapsulated in their land, poverty and famine and which also aspire to dominate neighbouring areas or at least to play a more important role in the world concert and order.
The great oceans and important seas such as the Atlantic, the Pacific, the Arctic, the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean or the two great canals (Suez and Panama) and the surrounding areas - for various reasons such as being able to exploit the great natural resources under their waters or for the growing capacity to increase the speed of connections between continents - have become veritable jewels that make the aforementioned large and insatiable predators keep an increasing vigilance and various actions on them to expand by creating small naval bases where there were none, with the aim of supporting their warships and to dominate their waters, so that the importance of the navies of each of them and of the alliances that arise between allies are becoming more and more important and, consequently, that of their ships; day by day they are becoming more sophisticated, simplified in the weapons they carry - but more efficient and less sophisticated - and effective in area defence, mainly with and against drones, artificial intelligence, electronic warfare and cybernetics.
Hence the growing importance of submarine weapons, which not many years ago were going through difficult times and which, now, due to the needs of the script, the big technological companies in the field are striving to improve their possibilities and speed of immersion, the difficulty of detection and to increase the capabilities and effectiveness of the weaponry (missiles and torpedoes) they carry.
The United States is trying to remain at the top of the chain of predators of global popularity or arbitrariness, but it is playing with two very negative factors against it, which in the short term could prove harmful to its continuity and level of occupation of this role. These are the weariness of its population to be the ones who always provide the money (taxes), the numerous casualties and the enormous military capabilities, while its so-called allies are dedicated to living as if nothing affects them and thinking that Uncle Sam will always be there to fix any mess or serious compromise. The other factor, perhaps much more negative, is the longevity and poor mental health or eccentricity of the two leading candidates to fill the country's presidency in the next four years. Neither of them can be trusted at all to exercise the strong leadership required at a time of change, especially since Xi Jinping revalidated his mandate a few months ago and Putin has just done so; both in the Bulgarian style and for several years to come, although enjoying full popularity and great support from their citizens to undertake whatever exploits they need or want to.
The African continent, except for Morocco in the northwest and the southern cone, is occupied, exploited and dominated by three of the aforementioned actors, ISIS, China and Russia, which can also lead to clashes between them. Clashes of all kinds in their origin, from commercial issues and exploitation of natural resources, exploitation of acquired or refined wealth and even due to the expansion or persecution of religious beliefs in some cases. These events involve parallel reactions, but are ultimately interconnected, as has apparently been the case with the recent jihadist attacks in Moscow.
Something similar could be said of the Middle East, an immense minefield, full of traps of all kinds where the common and almost exclusive maxim is to destroy Israel at any price, and to achieve this requires the activities, tactics, training and weaponry employed by terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah - adopted children of Iran and nursed by Iran, which are capable of maintaining open, on their own, a high intensity conflict - or by the Syrian forces themselves, which in this case are acting against factions of ISIS. The latter forces and wars are fuelled by Russia in "support" of an undemocratic country in exchange for free access to or possession of logistical bases on Syrian territory on the shores of the Mediterranean.
It is in this area, abandoned by the United States overnight and without any explanation, where the symbiosis between Iran and Russia is very great, mainly to pursue ISIS, and where Turkey appears from time to time and whenever the latter allow it, to do its own thing or fight its own permanent enemies, the Kurds, wherever they are identified, even if it is outside Turkish borders.
It seems that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey's president since August 2014, for the time being, could be content with having turned his country's politics and religion upside down - as one does with a sock - in order to control it in his own way and manner and to keep himself satisfied by asserting, from time to time, his weight and manifest dissent, and, on the other hand, by managing to obtain international consent, without much external noise, to continue fighting the troublesome Kurds - albeit with a heavy hand and without mercy - in order to achieve an important part of their permanent extermination.
At present, everything suggests that the other major player in the region, Saudi Arabia, Iran's eternal enemy, is distracted or very busy with major changes in national policies that bring with them important acquisitions of products and technologies of all kinds, even the most unsuspected, and in the construction of a powerful and modern country, even in its armed forces, where most of the most important multinational companies are diversified and operate and all kinds of energy sources are used; the latter due to its firm belief in the obligations that the global demands of climate change will definitely and undoubtedly bring about in the near future and that another type of energy is possible in the future; cleaner and much cheaper, without having to resort to fossil fuels, despite being one of the countries that possesses the most fossil fuels.
To speak honestly about Europe is not at all easy; the Old Continent, once the hub of the world, the cradle of languages and cultures, which dominated the rest of the world for centuries in various phases or stages, has become insignificant. A series or amalgam of old and very comfortable countries that for many years let themselves be carried away by the bonanza of living life by the day and without worrying about the afterlife, with the absolute certainty that the Americans will never abandon them in the face of Russian whims and thinking that their economic and market capacities will be enough for the rest of the world to dance by their side, respect them and buy everything they produce. A zone in which its inexperienced and fragile individual and collective leaders (EU) spend their time smiling among themselves, thinking about trifles or internal quibbles, and launching into the world ideas that carry little weight and have no real effect in resolving the problems, whether entrenched or not, already existing on the international chessboard or about to emerge, which should be of much greater concern to them, because in the medium or long term, they will end up being splashed all over the place.
Europe bases its defence, almost exclusively, on NATO, in the belief that this alliance will last forever and that the biggest heathens (the US) will never tire of paying for the party and the drinks of a dance that has been going on for many years and which, moreover, has just been happily and unbridledly enlarged with several more members, thereby enormously increasing the kilometres of common border with Russia. These moves have not pleased Putin at all, so that on this side of the common border there is already talk that, after the more than foreseeable and miserable fall of Ukraine due to the abandonment of its free arms suppliers, NATO's space (totally or partially) will be the next piece to fall on the satrap's expansionist chessboard, because he knows that a weakened NATO will not be able to react adequately and that our military capabilities (the European ones) are meagre or very deficient, we are not well trained in real combat and we do not have strategic reserves (troops, ammunition and armaments) with which to feed the battle in a prolonged manner. Hence, in some countries, we are already beginning to hear the resurgence of movements towards the recovery of compulsory military service and the promotion of the arms industry or spending on armaments individually and even collectively.
If Trump wins the next US elections, which is more than likely, it is highly likely that he will put into practice the threats made during his previous term in office and which were ignored by most NATO members, including Spain, despite having been strongly contracted by all the allies at the Wales Summit in 2014 with regard to bringing defence spending closer to 2% of each country's GDP. Trump is a businessman, stubborn as a mule, but very clear and direct, and he does not like to be taken for a ride by unskilled or certainly "mindundis" leaders and too many freeloaders sitting around a table where he pays for most of the food and drinks. The future of the Alliance is therefore becoming uncertain and Putin will wait patiently for this to happen, like a fox waiting for its prey to finally move the snow to breathe and give away its weaknesses and presence.
The EU has no defence policy or planning capability, no forces of its own, no doctrine and no single command, which would make it difficult, if not impossible, for it to ever be a respectable or meaningful entity in this regard.
In other large areas of the world, such as South America, there is no clearly defined physical actor, although Russian and Chinese influence rather than presence is growing. For the time being, social-communist ideology is the prevailing ideology there and exerts a serious influence over the area, dominating and remotely managing the governments of many of the countries that make it up, with the consequent detriment to the real and effective exploitation of their natural wealth capacities and to the exercise of freedom of democratic expression by their citizens.
The ineffectiveness and uselessness of the UN on the world stage is well known. In recent days we have witnessed and observed with astonishment that its decision-making system makes it useless, slow, very costly and with a tendency to disappear. Its few substantive resolutions, sold with all the paraphernalia, are neither accepted by almost nobody, let alone complied with in context or in full by those involved. Their role, despite the seriousness and duration of all the conflicts currently open in the international arena, and those that are possible or close to appearing, is frankly derisory and irrelevant.
With these circumstances and a global economic situation that is far from buoyant, the world is hesitating daily about which way to turn and whom to follow; precisely at a time when, moreover, the number of actors with diverse and capricious interests is much greater, so that they can destabilise it at any moment by themselves or as a consequence of the outbreak of a minor or regional conflict.
In view of such a degree of conflict and uncertainty and the absence of real world leaders to censure or correct those who go astray or who clearly set the general course to be followed and make it good and feasible, voices are already beginning to emerge, not very misguided or quite authoritative, that are beginning to preach or fear the possibility of a third world war in which the worst thing will be to find out in good time the possible scenario in which the game will be played. We shall see what happens.