Let Russia have a way out

' When you encircle an army, give it a free way out. Do not press a desperate enemy too hard' Sun Tzu. The art of war

The metaphor that sees a strong enemy, partially defeated in the military contest, as a wounded and cornered beast - let's say a bear - that should not be pressed, but rather allowed to flee because of its potential, despite its wounds, is surely very apt. Now imagine a bear with a nuclear arsenal: 4,500 warheads.

An enemy with nuclear weapons (let's simplify the debate, beyond 'unconventional') and with an estimated willingness to use them is virtually invincible, as it is almost impossible to achieve its surrender in the classical sense of the term. It is not off the table, but in addition to achieving its reduction in the territories where it is deployed, its nuclear capabilities must be nullified from within, and that is the tricky part. Historical example: it is possible that Hitler, if he had had nuclear ballistic capabilities, would have dropped a few bombs before taking his own life in his Berlin bunker. Adolf Hitler did not have nuclear capabilities, but Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin does.

Before I continue, a note: this author believes that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is illegal and unjust; that Russian troops, regular and irregular, have additionally committed atrocities contrary to international law; and that there is verified evidence from independent sources (some based on images of military tactics that are difficult for me to explain tactically) of war crimes and human rights crimes committed by forces commanded from Moscow. The war must end and those responsible for such crimes must be tried and convicted, where appropriate.

Having said that, we return: the bear has nuclear weapons. No one has believed the alleged initial intention to secure Donbas for Russian interests by attacking the south and launching another pincer from the north on Kiev. The 200,000 troops in round numbers, the inefficient and poorly planned supply chains and the inexplicable military tactics seen on the ground had a single goal: to overthrow the Kiev government and subdue Ukraine. Ukrainian bravery, Western assistance (intelligence and materiel) and the unexpectedly 'crappy' Russian deployment prevented this. And yet today's Russia, with Putin approaching his 70th birthday, must have a way out that it can sell as dignified.

Does that mean forgetting the almost certain crimes against humanity committed in Bucha and other parts of the Ukrainian theatre of war? No. Does it mean backtracking on Kiev's intention to join NATO and retain Crimea? Zelenski has already said he would agree. Does it mean that the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts should be recognised as independent republics? Kiev, Brussels, Washington and other capitals will say so. Does it mean nodding when the Russians declare in earnest that their aims were different from what everyone knows? I have no doubt about it. "Of course, comrade. And bon voyage back". And here peace. And then glory.

All this means that Russia is a nuclear power and, for reasons very similar to those described by Wendy Sherman in some of her writings, and which the former Soviets share with North Korea (has no one wondered why the world does not remove this menacing cyst, annoying - with nuances - even to China itself?), it cannot be totally defeated, just like that.  Russia's current nuclear doctrine empowers the Kremlin to use nuclear weapons if it sees "the very existence of the state" threatened. Like Hitler in his bunker.

And more: dislike it or not, I believe that the possible prevention of war in Ukraine was beyond diplomacy and its necessary mellifluous complementary skills; the possible solution, on the other hand, is inescapably through diplomacy.

So far we have prevented Iran from developing a nuclear capability. Preventing that in Russia would require a time-travel back 70 years. To say that someone with nuclear weapons, acting outside the margins of what is internationally permissible, is just bluffing and unwilling to use their warheads is a judgement I dare not sign. And you? You have already lost the war. Give Russia a way out.

Francisco J. Girao, Dtor. Defence, Security and Aerospace, ATREVIA