Conclusions and observations on the Geneva negotiations
- The weakening of Iran's regional proxies
- International and domestic reactions
- The Iranian regime's tactics
- Europe and the US, overcoming divisions
- Conclusion
Not only has the regime failed to take this first step, but it also has until recently prevented inspectors from gaining access and disabled surveillance cameras.
The weakening of Iran's regional proxies
As the Iranian regime's proxies, such as Hezbollah, have been weakened, if not completely dismantled, Tehran no longer has the tools it once used to pressure the international community. In the past, these proxies, combined with the nuclear threat, allowed Iran to encourage Europe and the US to adopt a policy of appeasement, ignoring regional terrorism, mass executions and human rights violations inside the country.
Today, having lost these levers, the regime relies exclusively on its nuclear programme to maintain its extortive power. Ahmad Naderi, a member of the Presidium of the Iranian Parliament, implicitly confirmed this weakening of the regime, declaring: ‘As long as we do not move towards an atomic bomb, there can be no balance in the region.’
International and domestic reactions
On the evening of Thursday 21 November, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) adopted a resolution against Iran, despite the dissenting votes of Russia and China. According to The Wall Street Journal, ‘the reprimand, introduced by Britain, France and Germany with US support, is the first significant step in a months-long process that could lead to the reimposition of international sanctions against Iran.’
The resolution demands that Tehran immediately cooperate with the IAEA and answer unanswered questions about its nuclear activities.
Over the past three decades, the Iranian regime has not only secretly pursued its military nuclear programme but has developed it through deception. It has now accumulated 32 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium, enough to build several nuclear bombs, in blatant violation of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Despite mounting pressure, Tehran continues to obstruct the IAEA's demands for transparency, refusing to provide clear answers to questions posed by the agency.
The Iranian opposition, in particular the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which first revealed Tehran's clandestine nuclear programme in 2002, is extremely critical of the project. According to the NCRI, the regime's nuclear ambitions are contrary to the interests of the Iranian people, as the programme has cost the country more than $2 trillion and has plunged more than two-thirds of the population into extreme poverty.
Maryam Rajavi, chair of the NCRI, which presents itself as an alternative to the current regime, believes that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is essential for peace in the region. She calls for the activation of the withdrawal mechanism provided for in UN Security Council Resolution 2231 and the reactivation of the six previous Council resolutions on Iran's nuclear programme, although she acknowledges that these actions are overdue.
The Iranian regime's tactics
If the Iranian regime is serious about abandoning its nuclear programme, it must first answer the questions and clarify the ambiguities raised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Not only has the regime failed to take this first step, but it also has until recently prevented inspectors from gaining access and disabled surveillance cameras.
In the face of mounting international pressure, Iran is adopting a two-pronged strategy: delaying while secretly advancing its nuclear programme. Ali Larijani, adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and former speaker of parliament, declared: ‘If the new US administration says it is opposed to nuclear weapons, it should accept Iran's conditions... to reach a new agreement, not issue unilateral decrees like its decision before the IAEA!
The regime is clearly seeking to lure the Trump administration to the negotiating table to delay the activation of the snapback mechanism, which could reinstate UN sanctions. With certain key JCPOA restrictions set to expire in October 2025, this delaying tactic is crucial for Tehran.
In this context, on 25 November Khamenei announced a reduction in uranium enrichment from 60 per cent to 20 per cent, an apparent concession aimed at easing international pressure. Behind the scenes, however, the regime is quietly working to increase its enrichment to 90%, the threshold needed to make nuclear weapons. According to Kamalvandi, head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, the regime is using advanced technologies to accelerate this process, hoping to surprise the international community, as North Korea did by suddenly revealing its nuclear capabilities.
Europe and the US, overcoming divisions
For years, the Iranian regime has exploited divisions between Europe and the United States to maintain its nuclear programme. However, according to Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, former chair of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, ‘the IAEA resolution is the first sign of a difficult winter for Iran.’ Europe has moved closer to Trump's policy of maximum pressure. It is demanding a reduction in nuclear activities and increased inspections without offering any concessions.
This rapprochement between Europe and the US reflects growing frustration with Iran's destabilising role in global conflicts, especially in Ukraine and the Middle East. Iran's support for proxy wars, combined with internal uprisings in 2022 that exposed the regime's fragility, has led Europe to abandon its policy of appeasement. Europe now is aligning itself more closely with the US's tough stance on Iran.
For his part, Trump also needs European cooperation to maximise pressure on Iran. Since the US is no longer a party to the JCPOA, Europe should trigger Article 11 of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 to reinstate sanctions. This would obviate the need for IAEA approval and override any possible Russian or Chinese veto.
Conclusion
With the growing alignment between the US and Europe and the internal and external vulnerabilities of the Iranian regime, the activation of the snapback mechanism seems increasingly likely. This remains the most realistic way to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, ensure stability in the Middle East and prevent an arms race in the region.
However, Tehran is likely to continue to use diplomatic manoeuvres to delay, counting on the complexities of international politics to delay decisive action. But given the excessive costs of the current global conflicts and the growing pressure from a unified Western front, the regime's ability to resist appears increasingly limited.