Nuclear agreement and survival
The United States and Iran are going to resume in Vienna, indirectly, the negotiations on the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 by both countries, with the presidency of Barack Obama, plus the European intermediaries Germany, France and the United Kingdom. When Donald Trump arrived at the White House, one of the first decisions he took, was to reject the agreement and impose economic and trade sanctions on the Iranian regime and several of its leaders.
Their travel is banned and their foreign current accounts are seized. This is the current formula for punishing those considered responsible for a negative policy or aggressive decisions and thus avoiding that the usual sanctions against a regime end up causing more damage to the population than to the regime itself, which usually resorts to nationalist pride to strengthen itself internally in the face of what it calls an attack or interference in its internal affairs with its usual repressive propaganda. Undoubtedly, the sanctions imposed during these years of Trump administration have damaged the Iranian regime that is willing to return to negotiate with the United States directly if the sanctions are lifted.
For its part, Washington is demanding the release of American citizens detained in Iran. These are the public conditions to justify what most Western countries consider necessary, such as resuming the agreements to restrict Tehran's nuclear program, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Especially as circumstances have evolved following the agreements reached by Iran with Russia and China. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi assured that this 25-year cooperation agreement will be permanent and strategic. It includes all sectors. There are demonstrations in several Iranian cities protesting against this agreement which represents a huge cession in many sectors.
On the other side, the reality in the region has changed after the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which means peace and recognition of Israelis and Arabs, bringing a geostrategic turn that also affects millions of people. Furthermore, the new President of the United States, Joe Biden, has very clearly established his positions and is working to win back his European allies, even though the EU has signed a trade agreement with China, and to stand up to China's struggle for world hegemony and the increase of Russian influence in the Middle East and the Mediterranean.
What Chinese spokesmen described as the smell of gunpowder is still in the air during the high-level meeting between the Chinese and Americans held a few days ago in Alaska. The rapprochement with conditions to recover the nuclear agreement with Iran may represent a certain détente. But it will be far from easy.