Is China winning a war that is not its own?

China looks like the only winner of this bloody war in Europe. It will gain international stature and markets. But it must measure its steps so as not to become another stinker, as Russia already is, for the West.

If anyone was in on the secret of Putin's dark intentions, it was the Chinese leader, who not only won a truce so as not to tarnish the start of his Winter Olympics, but also began to accumulate oil reserves, albeit at a high market price. Xi Jinping was clearly informed of the Russian war plot, and acted in the most proactive way for his interests: buying up raw materials, securing Russia's raw materials, and putting himself in profile in the international arena.

If there is a winner in this war - when the losers as in any conflict are always everyone - it will be China, which hopes to consolidate its superpower position, avoid direct material losses to the other superpowers, and have a docile partner, the reeking Russia, to impose prices on its raw materials and sell it technology. From this perspective, it would seem that Putin, rather than expanding territories for Greater Russia, is consolidating the power of his border neighbour, which historically has always regarded him with suspicion precisely because of this territorial anxiety. It was Mao himself who, after embracing the brotherhood of communism with Stalin, broke that alliance and opened the door to relations with the West just fifty years ago, with Nixon's visit to Beijing.

We are facing different times and a technologically armed China with a desire for international prominence. Is this its great opportunity or could it be scalded, as Putin and Russia are likely to be after this war? Just this week Xi Jinping's second triumphant term in office comes to an end with the closing of the People's Congress sessions in Beijing. It was expected to be a session of praise for the leader who has given China the most material progress in its recent history. It will be the prologue to his re-election to an unprecedented third term that will enshrine him as an all-powerful leader, a dangerous path in the use of power as we are seeing in the leadership of his Russian neighbour. It will NOT be all glory and praise, for two shadows loom large over the present. China's alleged support for the invasion - with abstention from condemnation at the United Nations, and no sanctions against the Russian invader - and the failure to control the pandemic definitively, with the failure of the zero covid policy in Hong Kong.

The greatest risk for China is that its lukewarm stance in the face of Putin's attack will lead the West to rethink any technological and economic collaboration with the Asian giant, as in the Russian case. China's exposure, especially to American and European technological advances, could seriously damage its development path. Chinese Prime Minister Li Kiang's growth target for this year will be between 5 and 5.5 percent, compared to 5.2 percent in the two years of the pandemic. Investment in infrastructure and the revival of consumption and property would be the basis for activation. But the effects of the war and the boycott of Russia will be an element of unpredictable consequence. The massive purchases that Moscow would need as Western markets close to it can certainly improve its prospects. But all that glitters in the face of a Western alliance that, if consolidated in the face of the great danger of dictators, could seriously affect China, will not be all that glitters. Its vagaries over Taiwan will undoubtedly be counter-attacked much more harshly, with Xi expected to avoid any adventurism in the face of the idea of a few months ago of his "consolidation as the great emperor of unified China". A miscalculation like Putin's could cost Xi, his legacy, and China dearly.

The world stage has taken a battering on such a scale that it is only comparable politically to the immense pain suffered by the population. What was seen as a growing weakness of the American Empire - right after its exit from Afghanistan - has given wings to Putin, and certainly to Xi Jinping and his expansionist Silk Road project. There is no doubt that China is now emerging as an international winner in the midst of the tremendous misfortune of the war, which is sowing Europe with corpses, leaving Russia economically impoverished and affecting Europe on its energy base and on numerous commercial fronts.

Russian-Asian expert Theresa Fallon, director of CREAS (Centre for Eurasian and Russian Studies), told the European Journalists' Association this week that during her stay in Beijing she frequently visited the huge area where the Russian Embassy is located because of her son's studies. He noted that "there was not a single Chinese person working there, not even as a gardener".  The obligatory Russian-Chinese friendship of the former communist revolution, and that of today, will be put to the test by a historical distrust that also exists between the two powers. Beijing will undoubtedly pay dearly for its effective support for the Putin of war. And it will undoubtedly be constrained. Fallon reiterates that China and Russia complement each other in the sense that Russia has the raw materials needed by the Asian giant, and Russia buys advanced technological equipment in return. She points out that the economic plan for the new Silk Road had a solid and broad base in Ukraine. But it was when Russia seized Crimea that the design of the route was changed to pass through Russia and include it as a destination for economic action.

Today China needs to continue to grow its exports, and it sells more than twice as much to the EU as it does to Russia, so it can hardly risk a boycott of its products by Europe and the US. China is undoubtedly seen as the winner in the midst of this bleak battle, but it cannot claim an easy victory either diplomatically or in the markets. For surely the other big winner in this war - in which we all lose - is the unity of the democracies against the terror of the dictators. China is also on notice. In this "new era of strategic responsibility", everyone will have to measure their steps very carefully.

Javier Martín Domínguez is president of the International Press Club