The Gaza conflict affects the world
One might think that the eternal quarrel between Israelis and Palestinians is something new (unless you remember David and Goliath) and something confined to the narrow geographical limits of the old Palestine, but nothing could be further from the truth because its consequences reverberate in the rest of the world.
To begin with, the Gaza conflict impacts on the Ukrainian war in at least two ways: firstly, because it takes it off the front page of the newspapers and the opening of the news to send it to a third row unimaginable before October 7, and secondly because with this loss of attention the commitment to its cause is weakened -whether we want it or not-, which also goes into the background. The result is less aid in arms and money in a climate of growing "war fatigue" on the part of the West, while the current stalemate in the war will increase calls for a negotiated solution to end the fighting. The problem is that this rewards the aggressor, whose troops still occupy 23% of Ukraine's territory.
Russia and China benefit from the conflict in Gaza because it keeps the attention of the world - and in particular the US - focused on the Middle East and allows them to pursue their agendas without major interference: Russia sees the possibility of winning the day in Ukraine closer, while China continues its expansionism in the South China Sea punctuated by conflicts with coastal states such as the Philippines and Vietnam, not to mention Taiwan. These countries and others in the region, from Japan to Australia, are apprehensive about how American diplomacy, focused on the Middle East, is not giving them the attention they demand in the security sphere. There is also criticism within Washington that China, which everyone considers the real danger to U.S. interests, is being sidelined. Hence the meeting between Biden and Xi in California a few days ago.
The conflict has another negative consequence that concerns freedom of expression, which is worryingly compromised: we must be very careful about what we say and write because Manichaeism is imposed and the Manichaeism is imposed and at the very first moment you are branded as anti-Semitic or of not properly defending human rights. And if not, just ask the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, or Pedro Sánchez himself. The "cancellation culture" is gaining ground, especially in the United States, where it is already being used as a weapon, and that is bad.
On the other hand, the Western response to the Gaza conflict distances us from that majority of the world's population that is included in what has come to be called the Global South, more than a hundred countries that accuse the West of hypocrisy and double standards when they see that we react very differently (not all, but many) to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the massacres of civilians on all these fronts. There we have a serious problem that damages our image in the world.
For now it does not seem likely -although it is still a possibility- that the Gaza conflict will turn into a major war because none of the actors involved in regional geopolitics -Israel, Iran, Turkey, Russia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia or the United States- wants it. If it were to spread - and a mistake is always possible - its consequences would be unpredictable in human (deaths, refugees), warlike, economic (globalization, inflation, oil prices), or security (terrorism) terms, etc. because it is already known that there is no bad situation that cannot get worse.
For the time being, what is already happening there frustrates American efforts to normalize relations between Israel and the Arab world and to open a corridor through the Middle East between India and Europe to compete with the Chinese Silk Road, while keeping the Hebrew State isolated in its geographical environment. The Palestinian problem, intentionally forgotten by Israel for years, has regained its central role, reminding the world at great cost that there will be no peace and security for anyone without justice for the Palestinians. And while Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran seek to reconfigure the strategic balances in the region for their own benefit, when things calm down it will be necessary to decide what to do with Gaza, something that Netanyahu seems to be beginning to be clear about, and also with the Israeli-Palestinian relationship, and perhaps then the Spanish initiative for an International Conference for the Palestinians will gain ground.
Spanish initiative for an International Conference to try -without much hope- to find solutions to these thorny issues that have been unresolved for so many years, not by chance.
Jorge Dezcallar Ambassador of Spain