Two male crocodiles

If there is one place where a crisis involving the two superpowers, the United States and China, could erupt, it is Taiwan, the island of Formosa where the remnants of Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist army took refuge when Mao Zedong seized power in mainland China. Since then, Beijing has not ceased to demand the "return to the motherland" of this unredeemed island the size of Holland and with the relief of Norway, which is something nobody there wants to hear about, and even less so now when they see that China is not fulfilling the promises it made to Hong Kong to respect until 2047 the Statute negotiated at the end of the British colonial period, and where a legislature dominated by Beijing loyalists has just been "elected". The "one country, two systems" thing is no longer believed by anyone in Taiwan, which has seen its neighbour's beard peeled in Tibet, Xinjiang and now Hong Kong, and does not want its own to soak in the water. A scalded cat runs away from water.

The problem is not only the freedom of Taiwan, which is not internationally recognised but is a functioning democracy, the problem is that the United States is committed to its defence and the whole of Asia is waiting to see how it will react in the event of aggression to see whether it is a reliable ally or not. By Asia as a whole I mean Japan, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia or Borneo, countries that have territorial or maritime disputes with China, but also South Korea, Australia and other ASEAN countries that are experiencing the growing schizophrenia of depending on Washington for their security, but increasingly gravitating towards China's orbit of economic influence.

When Nixon/Kissinger made the applauded flip-flop ("ping-pong diplomacy") in 1972 to establish relations with China as a manoeuvre against the USSR, they accepted the demand to assume the "one China" policy and not to recognise Taiwan in return for Beijing not unilaterally altering Taiwan's status. This is what was called "constructive ambiguity", which is a formula that has worked... until now, when there are signs of disquiet in government and Chinese Communist Party circles. Xi Jinping is not like Deng Xiaoping, who favoured "hiding capabilities", patience and prioritising economic development. Xi wants to leave a mark that puts him on a par with Mao in the Communist shrine, has already inscribed his "Thought" in the Constitution, has put an end to presidential term limits and has embarked on a nationalist policy ("Tiger diplomacy") whose cherry on top would be the reincorporation of Taiwan before 2049, the centenary of the Communist revolution in China. Another important factor is that Taiwan is the largest manufacturer of semiconductors needed by Chinese industry, the lack of which causes bottlenecks in its production rate, especially in a context of poor relations with Washington. Last year China manufactured only 30 per cent of its needs and had to import semiconductors worth 38 billion dollars worth of semiconductors. According to the Brookings Institute, the country that masters Artificial Intelligence in 2030 will dominate the world in 2100. That is where Xi is, and that is why he needs Taiwan, thus uniting patriotism and expediency.

Tension has grown these days over the first visit to Taiwan by a US diplomat (the ambassador to Palau), US arms sales and increasing Chinese overflights near Taiwan, whose waters have also been approached by a Beijing aircraft carrier. Nerves are growing and Washington is toughening its stance. Admiral Davidson, the military commander for the Asia-Pacific region, recently told Congress that he expected a Chinese attack on Taiwan "within the next six years", and another admiral, Stavridis, a former NATO supreme allied commander, has just published '2034: A novel of the next World War' in which he fantasises about an incident in the South China Sea (not Taiwan) leading to a war between China and the United States. As an African proverb says, "two male crocodiles can't fit in the same pond", especially if they are fighting over the same prey.

Jorge Dezcallar, Ambassador of Spain

Published in the Diario de Mallorca, el Periódico de Catalunya and Cadena de Prensa Ibérica on Sunday 11 April 2021