What next?

Churchill said three quarters of a century ago that Russia was an enigma shrouded in mystery, and the passage of time only confirms his assessment, as evidenced by recent events that remain shrouded in darkness and uncertainty. In reality, we do not know what is going on behind the uprising of Prigozhin, who we should not forget was (Putin's) cook before he was a friar and who launched a revolt after months of public clashes - which nobody stopped - with the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defence, only to call it off hours later after a confused mediation by the president of Belarus that succeeded in removing the fuse from a crisis in which red lines had been crossed on all sides: Prigozhin revealed what the world already knew but the Russians ignored, the falsity of Putin's motives for invading Ukraine, while the president had called the mercenary a traitor and promised to punish him. Suddenly, the advance on Moscow is halted when no one had hitherto prevented it, and the troublemaker walks free, presumably with his pockets full. Nor is there any punishment for the rebel troops, who are offered integration into the regular army or a march to Belarus. To do what? To add to the confusion, Prigozhin has been received by Putin in the Kremlin and the Wagner militia is not dismantled, but will continue to operate in places like Mali or the Central African Republic where it protects dictators in exchange for gold mines and other trifles. It's all too strange and I'm afraid it won't end there.

Nor do we know whether a weaker, stronger or vengeful Putin will emerge from what has happened. It seems to me that the only certainty is the third. There are those who think it has all been a diversionary manoeuvre that will allow Putin to clean out suspicious elements in his entourage and in the Armed Forces, as rumours seem to indicate that the military commander in Ukraine, General Surovikin, has been arrested (unconfirmed) for being in cahoots with Prigozhin or, at least, for knowing about his plans and not having denounced them. This may not be a unique case because my impression is that if the revolt was stopped when no one was holding back its advance towards Moscow, it may well have been because Prigozhin thought he had support in the army who then, in the moment of truth, did not step forward.

And what about the oligarchs, except that many private jets left both Moscow and St. Petersburg as the rebels approached the capital. When the Ukrainian war began there was a suspicious increase in millionaires "falling" from high windows and I would not be surprised if the epidemic were to be revived in the near future. Putin may have come out weaker from the attack, but he can soon turn that weakness into strength and, of course, take revenge on all those who have not openly betrayed him but have not declared themselves on his side in the moment of truth. In time. Because Russia is not a country for the lukewarm and the image of a Putin capable of guaranteeing the stability and security that his business demands has been shattered.

What has not changed with the revolt is the march of the war. Putin has lost his most hardened militia, Wagner's criminals, those who managed to conquer the Bakhmut enclave where the regular forces had failed, and now faces a Ukrainian offensive that is advancing with great difficulty because the Russians have had time to dig in while continuing to shell civilian targets such as the restaurant in Kramatorsk where the novelist Victoria Amelina died and Hector Abad Faciolinde almost did as well. For its part, Kiev needs victories to show a world that is beginning to show war fatigue, especially if the Republicans win the US presidency next year. Ukraine needs to maintain the military support that the NATO summit in Vilnius will guarantee and to increase political support in areas such as Latin America that view the conflict with equidistance and as something very distant, to the point of widely disagreeing with the inclusion of the issue in the final communiqué in the terms desired by the Europeans. Spain, during its rotating presidency of the EU, can help Ukraine to make its cause known among the countries that speak our language.

Because there can be no equidistance between aggressor and attacked, and this war is going to go on for a long time.

Jorge Dezcallar, Spanish Ambassador.