Benjamin Netanyahu, the return of the Phoenix Bird

Religion and state, separation of powers, government corruption, electoral system, human rights and democratic values, the future of the territories of Judea and Samaria - the West Bank - and the Arab citizens of Israel. These are variables that the Israel Democracy Institute has been analysing to determine the direction of the vote, sociological changes and, above all, the differences between the plethora of parties and ideological options that make Israeli society that confusing mix of secular and religious that fascinates, and Israel a Jewish state, regardless of who governs and the legal respect it has for all the minorities that make it up. In the same way that democracy is consubstantial to its political system, and its fundamental character will not be altered no matter how extravagant the proposals of some of the leaders who make up the heterogeneous jigsaw of political sensibilities that converge in the elections and, if they surpass the 3.25% ceiling, obtain representation in the Knesset, Israel's 120-seat parliament.  

"The State of Israel is above all political considerations, and I wish Netanyahu success for the good of the people of Israel and the State of Israel", declared Yair Lapid, the still acting Prime Minister, who has already given orders to transfer power in an orderly fashion to the man who has been his greatest political rival in recent years and who has once again won the elections, on 1 November, at the head of Likud. Bibi returns strengthened, against all odds, with 32 seats and the promise of a broad coalition of 64 seats (the absolute majority is 61) with fellow travellers who, from traditional religious orthodoxy - Sephardic (Shas) and Ashkenazi (United Torah Judaism) - and religious nationalism (Religious Zionism), will allow him to govern without depending on Arab parties. This is undoubtedly the key to the outcome of the fifth elections held in Israel in the last three and a half years and the failure of the last coalition government headed first by Neftali Bennet (Yamina) and then by Lapid (Yesh Atid): that the left in general, and the Israeli left in particular, still fails to recognise that Palestinian nationalism is based on the denial of the right to accept the legitimacy of a Jewish state - irrespective of whether all its citizens are Jewish or not - sovereign, regardless of where the borders are drawn. Only in this way can it be understood that the political rise of Religious Zionism's leaders, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar ben Gvir, who are causing such alarm with their ideological extremism, is due to frustration with the previous government's handling of intra-Arab communal violence rather than the demographic growth of the religious community in Israel, Palestinian terrorism, the absence of a valid interlocutor in the Palestinian arena, or appeasement in the face of an increasingly critical and polarised US administration on issues that Israel understands to be in its domestic domain and affecting its national security. Increasingly, both academic and intelligence reports indicate that the erosion of support for Israel and adjustments in global priorities will determine a period of unstable relations with the US, at a time of unprecedented challenges in the region and a time when the sustainability of a strategic relationship based on shared values and mutual benefits is being questioned. Disagreements over the Palestinian question, the Iranian nuclear programme or pressures for Israel's non-break with Russia in the Ukrainian war are perceived in Israeli society as a profound misunderstanding of its national security needs, an erosion of the historical attachment between the two countries, and interference in the choice of alternatives with which Israel tries to assemble its governing coalitions on the basis of the social balances represented by its multiple policy options. 

Although it may seem so, there are hardly any substantial differences between parties within the same bloc, and the factor that most influences the Israeli voter is not the traditional right-left equation, but the religion/secularity and territory binomial, with the full range of nuances between the two. The majority of the population generally advocates a traditional non-religious - i.e. non-theocratic - state that preserves Jewish traditions, respects different faiths and lives in harmony with both secular and religious Haredi. The territorial factor comes down to the way in which sympathy for the creation of a Palestinian state is expressed, whether or not dialogue with Ramallah is prioritised and the borders of the state of Israel are defined. The problem is that the political stalemate, the absence of a reliable interlocutor who really wants to reach a viable agreement, the conviction that coexistence is impossible and the indifference and absence of desire for coexistence and reconciliation, are shaping a political reality that many view with concern because it portends, unwittingly, a single state that will not only not be functional, but profoundly hostile to Jews, who would be left in a minority given the demography and the incompatibility of national aspirations.   

In Israel, it is not a party that wins, but the possibility of generating an alliance. And since Israel is no stranger to the segmentation and polarisation also experienced in other countries, nor to the loss of representation of political parties in favour of personified leaderships, Netanyahu's return is understood as a commitment to pragmatic stability with a character who has shown that, in addition to managing the economy positively, he has no complexes when it comes to defining his project for the country, which involves the separation of the two communities - Israeli and Palestinian -, the continuation of Israel's normalisation in the region, the extension of the Abraham Accords beyond the Middle East, and the neutralisation and paralysis of Iran's nuclear programme.  

Stability, solidity, definition, economic development, national security, experience, resounding diplomatic successes and credible leadership are more than enough reasons for this charismatic and knowledgeable Phoenix Bird to responsibly take on the task of forming a comprehensive government to address the internal dilemmas necessary to ensure, internally, Israel's character as a Jewish, democratic, secure and prosperous state, and internationally, the continuation of a process of reconciliation with the skilful Arab world and geopolitical alliances based on the raison d'état, which puts the security of his country first in a convulsive global scenario.