A choice that affects us all

Many citizens of the world would like to actively participate in the U.S. presidential elections because of the profound global repercussions they bring. To be able to vote for the leader of the free world, whose decisions have a decisive impact on the lives of all of us, would therefore seem to be a just aspiration for the future. Meanwhile, coming down to the prosaic reality, we will await with great interest the outcome of tomorrow's November 3 elections.

These elections, which some describe as the most important since the presidential elections of 1860 that brought Abraham Lincoln to the White House, will take place at a time of worrying polarization in American society, in which two increasingly divergent visions of America and its role in the world are confronting each other. From November 3, after an exciting election night and the counting of the votes cast by mail, we will know the direction that the new global order will take, whether an inclusive and normative cooperative multilateralism or a competitive multipolarity of rival and even hostile geostrategic centers of power will prevail. We will also know the fate of international organizations such as the WHO, the WTO, the Atlantic Alliance, the OSCE, or ASEAN, among others. 

We will know the model of international management of connectivity, communication and information technologies, cyberspace and new disruptive technologies (artificial intelligence, Internet of things, economy of data). We will know, finally, if we can count on an effective coordinated response at the global level of the national efforts deployed so far to subdue the coronavirus pandemic, which knows no borders and ravages the planet.

This is therefore a crucial choice for our daily lives, individual and collective, whose consequences will leave no one indifferent, as they will affect us all. The Americans are well aware of this, as shown by the unprecedented figures for early voting (by mail and in person), which at the time of writing already exceeds 60 million votes, which would indicate a very high participation of the American electoral body.

The Democratic candidate Biden has been leading all the polls with a stable advantage that would oscillate between 5 and 10 points, even leading the decisive "swing states" or key "hinge states" (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania), and receiving the sustained support of very significant sectors of the population: women, African Americans and university students. 

On the same election night, favorable results for Biden in the states of Arizona, North Carolina or Georgia would be a preview of Biden's final victory. However, after the severe correction experienced by the forecasts of the previous elections of 2016, the opinion leaders point out the existence of a more than probable "hidden vote" in favor of President Trump, of an amount difficult to predict since the number of undecided people is notably lower than in 2016, which could finally tip the balance on the side of the Republican candidate.
Be that as it may, when the great American Republic speaks, the world will be silent.