Italy, new elections in September

The paralysis of most political activity due to the effects of the coronavirus forced the postponement of up to eight elections in Italy. One of these was the "referendum" that had been called for 29th March in order for the Italian population to approve or not the reduction in the number of MPs that had already been given the "green light" by the two parliamentary chambers: This meant that, if this reduction was successful (and it seemed very likely, given that practically all the parliamentary forces had already voted in favour of this measure), the lower house would go from having the current 630 parliamentarians to only 400, and the upper house, in turn, would go from the current 315 (which can always be increased to five more if the President of the Republic decides to make use of his prerogative to appoint them on the basis of their outstanding work in their field) to only 200.

But what was also left unresolved were the elections to decide the government of up to six different regions, which were to be held between the second half of May and the end of June. In particular, the regions of Veneto and Liguria in northern Italy, Tuscany and Campania in central Italy, and Marche and Puglia in the southernmost part of the country were to be renewed. Finally, as happens every year, elections were called to renew the municipal governments, although in this case none of the three major cities of the country (Milan, Rome and Naples) had planned elections, since in all three cases these elections are scheduled for 2021.

The most relevant aspect of these elections is whether there will be a change in the electoral dynamics that the country has experienced since the summer of 2018. Since then, with the exception of Emilia-Romagna (where the centre-left was able to win), there has been a succession of victories by the centre-right: Abruzzo, Sardinia, Friuli-Venezia-Giulia, Sardinia, Sicily, Calabria... and so on, up to 13 regions that have come under the control of the centre-right and, in particular, Matteo Salvini's League. But the truth is that in these months there have been important and very relevant changes in the Italian polls, highlighting above all, the loss of voting intention of Salvini's party in favor of the Brothers of Italy of the Roman Meloni, which is in maximum support from the Italian electorate.

Likewise, in the center-left space, in front of a PD that continues stagnant, a Renzi that does not make more than to lower in intention of vote and a Movement Five Stars that is in an unstoppable free fall (this same week two parliamentarians more, one by each camera, have left the parliamentary group to go away, in a case, to the Mixed Group, and in another, to the League of Salvini), We find ourselves with a Prime Minister (Conte) who has gone from behaving like a mere figurehead in the hands of Di Maio and Salvini to being, along with Meloni, the most popular politician in the country, to the point that some are already talking about Conte either creating his own party or heading the Five Star list in the face of a general election which, in principle, has almost three years to go.

The reality is that the current situation can undergo a very substantial change in just two months, and we will explain why. Salvini has lost almost ten points in his intention to vote because he has not been able to practice for months his favourite way of winning votes: that populism characterised by going from town to town, talking to all those who approach him and pulling the demagogy and exploitation of the uneasiness that so many returns generate in him. But now, unless the coronavirus recurs, he will be able to put his very effective style into practice again when it comes to making politics, and manage to regain victories as in the last two years. Of course, it won't be so easy now: voters will be aware that the region that has experienced the biggest coronavirus debacle (Lombardy) not only has a government controlled by Salvini's party, but that the man at the head of it (Attilio Fontana, much criticized by public opinion) is a personal bet of the leader of the League.

The truth is that if these elections had been held under normal circumstances, the centre-left would surely only have been able to retain Tuscany, the homeland of Matteo Renzi (mayor of Florence between 2009 and 2014) and where the former prime minister's party (the Democratic Party) has a huge presence. Since "unity is strength", the PD and Renzi's party (Italia Viva) have agreed to present a joint candidate (Eugenio Giani).

In reality, in something typically Italian (where the so-called "civic lists", made up of people from various parties and even independents, have been running for some time), in each election there will be alliances that will not be seen in other regions: for example, in Liguria the Five Star Movement and the PD will have the same candidate, but in the other regions they will go separately. In turn, Renzi, even though he has never been worse off in the polls since he founded his party in mid-September, is going to present candidates in all the regions, and in two of them (Veneto and Liguria) he is going to play for the whole with a candidate of his own (in the first case, the name is not yet known; in Liguria, the chosen one is Elisa Serafini, who was already part of the government of this region until her resignation in 2018 due to disagreements with the President of the region, Giovanni Totti).

The truth is that, if in these more than two months that lie ahead, Salvini manages to recover the intention to vote before the arrival of the coronavirus, and the recession is accentuated to limits difficult to bear, President Mattarella will have a very difficult time not to allow an early general election, since the current government coalition is more fair than ever of votes after the latest defections in the Five Star Movement, and that, likewise, a non-political government such as that of Monti nine years ago, is more than ever a very risky operation, because it will be very difficult to support it by a Salvini who knows that he is surely facing his last chance to take over the presidency of the Council of Ministers, and there is also a part of the Five Star Movement, led by Alessandro Di Battista, that does not want to support a new "Monti operation".

In any case, the key will be in how the country recovers in these months ahead and also in knowing the depth that will have the aid from the European Union, both in terms of total amount to be received by the Italian government and the conditions that are made (partly non-refundable and partly in the form of credit, or all in credits). Because Italy, like Spain, is facing a very "hot" autumn where Salvini will surely shake up the streets more than ever in search of an electoral victory that he has been waiting for almost two years. And, in this sense, these elections (including the local ones) will say much about the preferences of some Italians who are more than ever fed up with the situation that is only getting worse.

Pablo Martín de Santa Olalla Saludes is Senior Researcher at the Civics Foundation and author of the book Italia, 2013-2018. From chaos to hope (Liber Factory, 2018)