14-F: the majority of VOX voters come from Ciudadanos 

The emergence of VOX in the Catalan Parliament with 11 deputies, surpassing not only the radical left-wing sovereigntists CUP and Podemos' Comunes, but also the constitutionalists of Ciudadanos and the Popular Party, raises a major socio-political question: who voted for VOX and why? 

The 218,000 votes received by Santiago Abascal's party, which was running for the first time in political elections in the Generalitat, do not correspond at all with the 36,000 votes this political party received in the municipal elections in Catalonia in 2019. Where did these 180,000 votes, which were not its natural electorate, come from? 

The Popular Party, which can be considered the closest by origin and political ideology to Abascal's party, lost 75,000 votes, of which it is quite likely that a good part, more than half surely, have gone to VOX. As for the loss of votes from the pro-sovereignty-populist bloc, which amounts to 850,000 ballots, they have not added anything to VOX. There could at most be a few hundred votes that have shifted from pro-independence to constitutional radicalism, in the spirit of the worse, the better, to exacerbate the tension and force a violent exit from pro-independence. But even so, it would be purely testimonial.  

The only party that has been able to offer a transfer of votes to Santiago Abascal's party is Ciudadanos. In all certainty, more than 100,000 votes of the 950,000 lost by Inés Arrimadas' party have gone to inflate support for VOX. It is by far the party that has contributed most to propelling constitutionalist extremism in the Catalan political scene. And it is highly foreseeable that the same phenomenon will be repeated in future political elections in Spain.   

The question, therefore, from a socio-political point of view, is to determine what are the similarities and differences between the two formations. Ciudadanos and VOX are similar in the cardinal point of their programme: the defence of a united Spain, as a state, as a country and as a nation. This does not create any problem of conscience for voters who, disappointed by Arrimadas' light constitutionalism, may have wanted to support Abascal's radicalism.  

The difference between the two, however, is one of stature. Arrimadas is willing to engage in dialogue with the prodigal sons, while Abascal is in favour of an iron fist, in legal and police terms.  

The foreseeable sovereignist-republican government of the Generalitat presided over by Esquerra Republicana leaves VOX as the undisputed leader of the opposition, because, although it has obtained a third of the votes and seats of the Socialist Party of Catalonia, the low profile that President Pedro Sánchez is going to impose on his Catalan party (PSC) will leave only one voice of political and parliamentary resistance. This is very, very worrying for the short and medium-term future of Spain.