AfD wins, SPD collapses, Schengen falters

Despite winning 30.5% of the vote, far outstripping the 24.5% of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the 16% of the ultra-left For Reason and Justice (BSW) and, above all, the 7% of the social democrats of the SPD and the Greens, who failed to reach even 5% and are now out of the regional parliament, he has no prospect of winning. 

Höcke, convicted of using Nazi slogans in his election campaign, will not make it, given the refusal of the other parties to agree with his party, the so-called cordon sanitaire. 

In the other eastern German state where elections were held, Saxony, the AfD came second (30%), close on the heels of the CDU (31.5%), followed there too by Sahra Wagenknecht's ultra-left BSW (12%), confirming the debacle of the Socialists, whose 8.5% only puts them in fourth place, with the Greens narrowly missing the minimum threshold (5.5%). 

With these results as a preamble, there are two very clear conclusions: the first is whether the SPD's debacle, no matter how regional the elections were, allows it to continue leading the German government, now extremely fragile, not only because of its own regional defeat, but also because of that of its ecologist allies. The second question is whether or not the exclusion from the political dialogue of the far-right AfD, whose one-third of the total number of voters is drawn precisely from the left-wing electorate, clearly disenchanted by the policies led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, will undergo any alteration. 

It seems very clear that the latest attacks carried out by radicalised Muslim immigrants or refugees on German soil, especially the one carried out by a Syrian in the city of Solingen, have exacerbated the mood and, as far as can be seen, the tendency to change the ballot paper in favour of those who promise change. Scholz already wanted to jump on the bandwagon of popular indignation by announcing restrictions both on immigration control and on the weapons that can be carried. 

That both the far-right AfD and the ultra-left BSW agree on their intentions to tackle the growing insecurity in the face of the threat of Islamist fundamentalists highlights one of the main, if not the most important, reasons for the changes of opinion experienced by the German electorate. 

Consequently, in addition to re-examining the mantra of a cordon sanitaire for the far right, the other self-imbued parties of moral superiority would perhaps do well to review the causes of citizens' weariness, especially that caused by their growing sense of being unprotected, the first obligation of a democratic state. 

The protests and demonstrations in Erfurt and other parts of Thuringia in rejection of the election results are only a sign of worsening polarisation. The usual insults of these demonstrators, always wielding the banner of violence, are tantamount to describing as Nazis or fascists the one third of Germans who voted for them and advocate change. Persisting with disqualification without solving the problems can only lead to the disqualified getting fed up one day and unleashing their own violence, with the predictably tragic results that history has already taught us. 

Another by-product of these elections is that it adds a new pretext for every government within the EU to feel compelled to take national measures to police its borders and consequently tackle illegal mass immigration. In other words, one of the main achievements of the EU besides the single currency, the Schengen Treaty, could falter. 

Not that there is any declared will to abolish it, but there are plenty of examples where, under the pretext of some extraordinary event or occurrence, the authorities of one country virtually close the borders with its neighbours or increase their controls to levels similar to those existing before the entry into force of freedom of movement within the European Union. Whether it is because of the Olympic Games, a massive and uncontrolled influx of illegal immigrants or to counter the expected flood of refugees, the reintroduction of border controls is a failure in the project of European integration. They are small bites at European freedom of movement, which do not de facto abolish the Treaty but which are increasingly limiting it.