Iran, between negotiation and terrorism 

Europe wants to revive the Iran nuclear deal. The US, under the new Biden administration, would agree, but only after verifying that the ayatollahs' regime fulfils its commitments and allows the untimely verification of its facilities by IAEA inspectors. Iran demands that before sitting down at the negotiating table, the sanctions, which are causing so much damage, be lifted, provoking a hardening of the regime in the process. And finally, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are suspicious of Tehran's real willingness to give up destabilising the Gulf monarchies.  

We were in the midst of this when the thwarting of an attempted attack on Emirati diplomats accredited to the UAE embassy in Addis Ababa was unveiled. According to Ethiopian intelligence reports, quoted by The New York Times, a 15-member "sleeper terrorist cell" was dismantled and an unspecified amount of weapons and explosives were seized.  

Although the Ethiopians have not revealed who was behind the attempted attack, they have not denied that another person arrested in Sweden, Ahmed Ismail, was the mastermind of the operation. Intelligence services in Africa, Asia and Europe reportedly coordinated their actions to arrest Ahmed Ismail, and to encourage the hypothesis that the operation planned to be carried out in Addis Ababa was only the first in a cascading series that Iran would carry out in many other capitals. The deactivated cell allegedly collected important material relating to the movements, activities and contacts of the Emirati, Israeli and US embassies in Addis Ababa.  

The operation in Ethiopia would thus be the starting point for identifying targets in various African countries where Iran would be capable of carrying out high-profile attacks similar to those suffered by prominent Iranian figures such as nuclear scientist Mohsen Fajrizadeh and General Qassem Soleimani, which were received in Tehran as a demoralising defeat.  

According to US Rear Admiral Heidi Berg, Director of Intelligence for the US Africa Command, there is no doubt that Iran is behind the 15 detainees in Ethiopia, as well as the mastermind of the operation, Ahmed Ismail, who was arrested in Sweden. Berg reportedly confirmed to his Israeli and Emirati allies that Ethiopia and Sweden had cooperated closely to foil the plot.  

As soon as these reports surfaced, Iran has been quick to deny the accusations, "baseless allegations provoked and spread by the malicious Zionist media", according to an Iranian spokesman in Addis Ababa. Ethiopia and the UAE have declined to comment publicly on such reports. Ethiopia's National Intelligence Service, however, has announced the arrest of a second group of suspected terrorists, who were allegedly caught red-handed in the preparation of a major attack on the UAE embassy in Khartoum, which was also confirmed by a Sudanese government spokesman.  

Analysis of all this leads to the conclusion that Israel is cooperating very actively in tracking and uncovering such alleged Iranian terrorist activities. A detail of great importance to this that might have gone unnoticed is that last November, immediately after the Ethiopian prime minister's visit to Israel, a group of Israeli drone pilots went to Ethiopia on a mission "to help eliminate the locust infestation that was ravaging the country's fields and destroying its agriculture". It has not been reported that these pilots may have simultaneously carried out other operations, although it is also striking that shortly afterwards Mossad chief Yossi Cohen met with his Ethiopian colleague "to discuss counterterrorism operations". According to The New York Times, such meetings are not exceptional, as Israeli intelligence maintains frequent contacts with "friendly African countries" where it suspects Iran may be plotting terrorist activities.    

The Middle East is once again on the boiling point, if it ever was. A more or less silent war is being waged, with all sorts of covert operations. The reshaping of its geopolitical map and its inevitable projection over the entire African continent are being discussed.