Israel's fourth election: no one to unseat Netanyahu

This Tuesday's election marks the fourth general election in Israel in barely two years, and there are no signs that Benjamin Netanyahu, the long-serving leader of the conservative Likud party, will not once again win at least an insufficient victory. Coalition projects opposing him are fading, some promises such as the centrist Benny Gantz have crumbled like a sugar cube in water, and it is once again highly unlikely that the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history can be unseated from power. 

Neither his quarrels with the courts for alleged corruption offences, nor the increasingly noisy weekly protest demonstrations outside his home, nor the weariness of the tiresome routine of going to the polls four times with the same deadlocked result and back to square one, seem to be making a dent in an ever-growing Netanyahu. For all its drawbacks, the pandemic has been politically profitable for Israel's head of government. His vaccination campaign is proving a success, even by comparison with the sluggishness and inconvenience of EU countries in administering it. It has also achieved the undeniable diplomatic success of recognition of Israel by major Arab countries with which Israel has never been at war before, and has made undeniable progress in terms of its image as a leading country in research and the application of the most modern technologies to virtually all economic sectors. A new soft power, as decisive for Israel, if not more so, than its unquestionable military strength.

Netanyahu, the proven political animal that he is, will win elections again. Whether he will win the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset and a stable legislature is less certain. But he probably does not care about that. The fifth elections will be called and he will continue to govern in the meantime and achieve new partial successes. Neither will Joe Biden's US reverse Donald Trump's decision to set up the embassy in Jerusalem, a decisive endorsement of the thrice holy city as the eternal capital of the Jewish state, nor will the numerous settlements in the West Bank, for example, be dismantled. 

Benny Gantz and his Blue and White coalition could have been his replacement in the last elections, but he felt that in the face of the pandemic the patriotic thing to do was to join forces with Netanyahu. As a result, his coalition disintegrated after disappointing those who pinned their hopes for change on him. Polls now put him and his party on the brink of extra-parliamentarism, that is, if he fails to pass the minimum threshold of 3.25% of the vote for representation in the Knesset. 

Polls are not generous either with the other three main political forces: Yair Lapid's centrist Yesh Atid (There is a Future), and the conservative New Hope of Gideon Saar and Yamina of Naphtali Benet. All three would have to make a strong advance, and in the process prevent the total collapse of Benny Gantz, or even a surprise for the Labour Party, which under the leadership of Merav Michaeli, the only woman to lead a political party out of the fourteen likely to share the 130 seats in parliament, is trying to rise from the ashes.

Michaeli's campaign is one of the most aggressive against Netanyahu, whom she bluntly accuses of having waged a hate campaign to delegitimise the centre-left since his enthronement as head of Likud in 1993. In her view, this stark and radical discourse led to the assassination of Yitzak Rabin and the destruction of the party responsible for the building of the State of Israel since its establishment in 1948. According to the polls, it will be enough for Michaeli to win her own seat and a few more, according to the 5% the polls are giving her, a far cry from Rabin's 34% in 1992. 

Israeli Arabs are not likely to be decisive this time either. The United Arab List, which, thanks to its coalition, became the third largest parliamentary force, has suffered the split of the Islamist Raam, which -good news for Netanyahu- would be willing to support a stable government headed by him for the first time in its history.

Needless to say, his traditional ultra-Orthodox partners will continue to support him unconditionally. Both Shas and United Torah Judaism will not move their votes one iota in any other direction than backing Netanyahu, nor will the more ultra-right-wing Religious Zionist Party. Therefore, whether Netanyahu wins or not, he will remain in power, even at the cost of governing in office, and waiting for the new elections, which in that case would be the fifth, to be held at the beginning of the summer. 

Along the way, this election edition will have consumed an expenditure equivalent to 170 million euros, the largest in Israeli electoral history. The large increase is due to the enormous logistics deployed in connection with the pandemic to ensure that both COVID-19 patients and those obliged to remain in quarantine can exercise their right to vote.