Oil prices rise back above $100 again

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has once again caused a significant rise in the price of oil at a time when negotiations between Ukraine and Russia continue to draw closer. Thus, at the last meeting, the price of Brent crude oil rose by more than 8%, once again exceeding 100 dollars per barrel, reaching 106 dollars. Likewise, the price of gas has shot up by more than 4% to reach 107 euros/mwh.

The possibility of a ceasefire between Kiev and Moscow led to a fall in commodity prices yesterday. However, the price of oil and gas has risen significantly once again. Despite the rapprochement between the two delegations, there are still "significant contradictions" in the negotiation process, a situation that has been reiterated by the Kremlin, which pointed out that it is "wrong" to claim that progress is being made in the negotiations. Despite this situation, talks between the two sides continue while Ukraine continues to suffer one of its most dramatic episodes. 

According to International Exchange, it will not be until June that oil prices begin to fall below 100 dollars. However, they note, they expect crude oil prices to fall below $95 by August of this year. Unlike crude oil, they expect gas prices to normalise only in the second half of 2023.

Despite these predictions, the volatility of the situation, brought about by rapid social and geopolitical changes, forecasts further upward adjustments in oil prices in the coming months. According to the US bank Morgan Stanley, brent will rise from 100 to 120 dollars by the next third quarter. In addition, the International Energy Agency has already declared that 3 million barrels of Russian seaborne oil exports have been written off.

This situation is also causing problems for energy distribution companies. This is evidenced by the European Federation of Traders, which has requested "emergency financing mechanisms" so that traders do not experience liquidity problems, a situation that could lead to various financing problems. 

According to data provided by the Ministry for Ecological Transition, in Spain the price per litre of petrol was over two euros in 11 establishments, averaging 1,794 euros per litre in the 10,000 petrol stations distributed throughout the country that have reported today's data.

Even so, this situation does not detract from the fact that the price of oil in Spain is experiencing a historic rise. According to the European Union Oil Bulletin, published on 17 March, in Spain the price of petrol (1,844 euros) and diesel (1,817 euros) have once again reached record highs, with prices rising by 9.9% and 15% respectively.