Analysts agree not to underestimate Trump after the "mid-term" elections
The mid-term elections in the United States, held last November, gave a slim majority in the House of Representatives to the Republicans, while the Democrats maintained control of the Senate. In order to analyse their significance and take a look at the political horizon, journalist and professor Pilar Bernal, Vice-President of Reporters Without Borders, brought together at Nebrija University Alana Moceri, analyst and professor of International Relations at IE, and Pedro Rodríguez, journalist and professor of International Relations at the Universidad Pontificia de Comillas, two "lucid analysts" of the US reality.
The conference dealt with polarisation in the United States and the "fracturing" of its democracy, without avoiding the names of names in the windows that open after these results in which, according to Bernal, "the expected red tide - the colour of the Republican Party - did not occur", most of Donald Trump's candidates did not win and "the furniture was saved quite well" by President Joe Biden.
"If the most serious threat to democracy in the United States was Trump, the results can be interpreted in an optimistic way, but experience has taught us not to underestimate him," said Pedro Rodríguez, who worked as a correspondent in the United States for the ABC newspaper. Alana Moceri was of the same opinion that "it is always difficult to say that Trump is defeated, although we have to keep him as far away from the White House as possible; I prefer that the Democrats lose than have another campaign with Trump, who does a lot of damage to democracy".
The results are "great" for Biden, analysed Moceri, who also pointed out that in several districts and states there has been a tug of war between democracy and Trumpist candidates where issues such as abortion have tipped the balance towards the Democratic Party. Rodríguez said that democracy has won over Trump despite the fact that the United States was going into the elections with inflation above 8%, with an unpopular president who was 80 years old and in a situation of "uncertainty, lack of confidence and extreme polarisation". With these factors, "the red tsunami has turned into a puddle" and the tradition of the governing party's loss of representation in the White House "has not been fulfilled".
The Pontifical University professor alluded to the absence of "great" consensus, "insecure majorities" and the "profound" transformation and "degeneration" of American politics, where both parties "have suffered the populist onslaught; the Democrats have endured it, but the Republicans have not". In his opinion, "the country is moving towards a Trumpism without Trump".
The polarisation of American society reflected the different points of view of the two analysts at the conference organised by the Department of International Relations at Nebrija University, directed by Adela Alija. While Moceri focused on the 80% of the population, who, with their leanings to the left or right, shy away from extremes, Rodríguez pointed out that when the debate revolves around "identity" it is "difficult" to have debates that "are not extreme" and in the end "democracy does not work well because the talk show hosts, the goatherds and the flags replace the political parties".
The figure of Vice President Kamala Harris also came to the fore. Her possible candidacy for the 2024 presidential elections, replacing the elderly Biden, generated all kinds of opinions. Pedro Rodríguez considered that "she is not working and her two-year record is not good". However, if the situation were to arise, "it would be problematic to deny" such a replacement. In view of the fact that this could happen even before the end of Biden's term, Alana Moceri said she was in favour of a "strong" Kamala Harris to whom the president "has to give greater prominence".
Is there room for different faces to break a hypothetical 2024 election showdown between Biden and Trump? Both experts agreed, but also warned of the complexity of creating a political leader with guarantees. On the Republican side, Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida and one of the big winners of the midterm elections, is gaining ground. "He really was the one bright spot for the Republican Party, a big conservative, but more traditional; he scares the Democrats, although it remains to be seen if he can beat Trump," Moceri outlined. "DeSantis is Trumpism in vein, but he is capable of reading a book and orchestrating a speech that can be linked to the tradition of the Republican Party. Even if there are people who breathe without Trump, beware of the DeSantis alternative".
America Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra.
