Belarus sends troops to Ukrainian border

Belarus has been reluctant to get directly involved in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, at least until now when circumstances have been more pressing than ever. Ukraine is holding out after more than 90 days of invasion, and Russia is sweeping away everything it can, launching offensives of destruction that are part of a conflict that no longer seeks to seize positions without causing as little damage as possible. Civilians have proven to be the point of this conflict, as well as the painful strategy of doing "as much damage as possible". Bucha has been a case in point, as have other major Ukrainian cities such as Kharkov.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has announced that he will form a military command and send a battalion tactical group to his country's border with Ukraine. Although the Belarusian president did not give details of the deployment, the battalion tactical groups are equipped with all types of weapons, especially tanks and mechanised vehicles, and are designed to execute high-intensity attacks.

Although the Belarusian Armed Forces have not directly supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko allowed Moscow at the beginning of the invasion to allow Russian troops to pass through his territory in order to reach the Ukrainian country more safely and easily.

Now, the fact that Lukashenko has announced this new deployment on his country's borders poses a new threat to Ukraine, including NATO. Indeed, Kiev has already sounded the alarm bells that Belarus may have agreed to further involvement in the war.

In recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried to pressure the Belarusian leader to become more involved in the conflict. Lukashenko had little choice in the matter, as he has more than once shown himself to be sympathetic to Russia's policies and Putin's self-critical nature, which he follows.

Days after these pressures, Lukashenko announced from Minsk that his forces would be deployed in three areas close to the southern border with Ukraine. The argument, as explained by Chief of General Staff Viktor Gulevich, is that "the US and its allies continue to increase their forces in three areas close to the southern Ukrainian border. The US and its allies continue to increase their military presence" on the borders.

Thus, in one of the information updates on the situation in Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence reportedly confirmed this deployment by Belarus and indicated that one of the possible reasons for this move could be a strategy to mislead the Ukrainians.

Lukashenko is dragging his feet on Ukraine's borders, on Putin's indirect orders, in a context in which Belarus and Ukraine have always tried to maintain more or less fluid relations before the invasion began. In fact, it is from Belarus, like Sergei Kolotsey, that the perpetrators of massacres such as those in Bucha and Irpin have come.

At a time when Russian forces are suffering, either due to low combatant morale or the military strategy Putin is employing, Moscow is looking to Minsk as a solution to the problem. Indeed, some reports indicate that Russia has lost more than 4,000 vehicles and other pieces of heavy equipment since the invasion began. 

In addition to material losses, the loss of Russian soldiers is estimated in the tens of thousands. All this is set against a Ukrainian army that is increasingly better trained, better equipped with international aid and, above all, higher in morale. 

After Putin's failed attempt to quickly seize the Ukrainian capital, the Kremlin decided to change its strategy and focus on "liberating" the Donbas region. It is here that it has withdrawn its troops from the north and concentrated most of its efforts. Although analysts suggest that this strategy is not helping Moscow to achieve its military objectives, the Russians have not stopped bombing positions. According to data, a total of 40 towns have been bombed, destroying or damaging more than 47 civilian sites, including homes and a school.

In the face of this seemingly endless situation, Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelensky urges a diplomatic solution to the conflict. "We have to face reality", he said, but it is also true that Zelensky refuses any kind of territorial cession, a red line that is Putin's main objective. Therefore, agreements or a possible way forward to reach a meeting point are stalled. Ukraine resists and does not give in while Russia goes all in, whatever the cost. The costs, however, are the same as always in all conflicts: destruction of the country, deaths and wounds that do not heal even with the passage of time, added to the rapes, displacements and high economic costs that will have to be approved to rebuild a European country that has become a battlefield.