Europe and the dilemma of security guarantees in Ukraine
Kiev's allies are looking for ways to protect Ukraine from a possible new Russian attack if a peace agreement is reached, but so far they have not found a concrete solution
Europe does not trust Donald Trump. Although the US president is pushing for lasting peace in Ukraine, Zelensky and his European allies have made it clear that they will not accept any agreement without sufficient security guarantees.
During Monday's meeting, Trump repeatedly assured that the protection Ukraine will receive will be similar to that received by all NATO countries under Article 5, although he did not go into details, a fact that has raised doubts among European leaders.
That is why, 24 hours after the meeting, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio led a Joint Committee with European and Ukrainian officials to detail and design a plan of guarantees that would satisfy all parties.
No consensus
Security guarantees remain one of the biggest challenges for Kiev's allies, as they have been unable to reach a concrete agreement for more than three years.
Kiev's preferred and most logical option is to allow Ukraine to join NATO, which would grant it protection under Article 5 of the mutual defence treaty. However, Washington, with the tacit support of several European countries, has ruled out this possibility due to the complications it would entail, such as: Which countries will send their troops? Under what conditions will they operate? How will they respond to an attack? And who will cover the costs?
At the same time, it became clear that day that the United States would not send troops to Ukraine, as confirmed by White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt: ‘I can assure you that the deployment of ground forces has been completely ruled out.’
But Trump was even clearer in an interview with Fox News: ‘European countries will take on that responsibility,’ he said. ‘France, Germany, two others, and the United Kingdom want to have troops on the ground.’ This position was also confirmed by French President Emmanuel Macron in statements to French television, where he said that Europe is ready to deploy ‘security forces’ to operate ‘by air, sea and land.’
Facts are lacking, words are abundant
Despite all the statements, the reality is unclear. Although there is much talk, security guarantees for Ukraine remain vague and undefined. This lack of clarity has created confusion among allies. The lack of a concrete definition also highlights the weaknesses of the countries that want to lead this initiative.
Both Macron and Keir Starmer, leaders of two nuclear powers and members of the UN Security Council, are seeking to show that they still have an important role to play on the world stage. However, they face internal political and economic obstacles that raise doubts about whether they can actually send troops to Ukraine.
In Germany, the situation is no different. Social Democrat MP Andreas Schwarz, who is responsible for overseeing the defence budget, was clear: ‘This is a decision that must be taken by Parliament, not an order from the government.’ He added: ‘We do not have enough personnel to deploy a large force. Even sending a small one would be a challenge.’
Division of opinions
Turkey could play a key role, given its large army and experience in the Black Sea. But its political situation is also complex, as Greece and Cyprus oppose Ankara receiving European funds to finance its military involvement.
Poland, which now has the largest army in the EU, has rejected the idea of sending troops to Ukraine, although it did offer to help with the logistics of any mission in the east.
For her part, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has also shown caution about sending troops. In a conversation with Macron, she proposed that it would be better to offer Ukraine a defence agreement rather than send soldiers who could be drawn into an open war with Russia.
"If one of our soldiers dies, should we act as if nothing happened? Or should we respond? If we respond, NATO would have to intervene. That would mean activating Article 5 immediately," Meloni told Italian newspaper La Reppublica.
Finally, another reason for caution is Russia's reaction. Despite the cordial atmosphere following the recent summit in Alaska between Vladimir Putin and Trump, Moscow remains adamantly opposed to any deployment of NATO forces on Ukrainian territory.
