Javier Solana: "With populism in more governments I am starting to worry"
New applications for membership of the Atlantic Treaty and the shift of the centre of gravity eastwards, incorporated into the hybrid type of conflict, have impeded the development of the 2030 Agenda, which included consideration of other threats such as those from the Southern Flank, climate change, cyber-attacks and disinformation. For its part, the European Union (EU) appears to be growing stronger, but it is clear that the common defence policy needs to be further developed.
In the first session of the XXXV International Seminar on Security and Defence in Toledo, Javier García Vila, director of Europa Press, raised several debates on how the new enlargements will affect NATO, what other risks have been identified in the Atlantic Alliance besides "Putinism", how the Alliance and the European Union intend to deal with the intangible threats posed by China and other emerging powers, and what place Spain can occupy in the new NATO and the EU after the conflict in Ukraine.
Javier Colomina, NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Foreign and Security Policy, emphasised that one of the main issues is how to respond to Ukraine's desire to join NATO. Although it is difficult at the moment, NATO hopes to reach common agreements.
"There will be more agreements and arguments to enhance NATO-Ukraine relations", Javier Colomina
The Vilnius Summit is expected to move from a commission to a council, that is, the relationship between Europe and Ukraine will be materialised in a council where the 27 countries will have to agree on aid to Ukraine. Failing the creation of such a council, cooperation will continue in practice, although, for Ukraine, fulfilling the desire for annexation will be the main focus. NATO is optimistic that an announcement will emerge from the Vilnius Summit. They insist it is difficult, but foresee a possible annexation of Sweden with Turkey's permission. Should the problem become entrenched, they insist it could pose a serious problem for the future, especially the Turkey-Sweden dilemma.
At the same time, the Union's relationship with the Asia-Pacific countries (Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand) will be enhanced by the creation of a new NATO office in Tokyo.
With regard to relations with the Global South, NATO stresses the great work of Spain, whose role at the Madrid summit was immeasurable, and of which it hopes that some objectives can be achieved in Vilnius, as long as it has the approval of the members. Colomina wanted to make it clear that these are not anti-China moves, but that due to the cyber and space-based nature of war and conflict, NATO believes it needs to be prepared to prevent any possible incidents.
The alliance's relationship with China is complex. While the Americans have a hegemonic debate with China, in Europe it is seen as a regime with which they maintain huge distances, but from which they are aware they need commercial alliances. The Americans fear only China as the only rival with the capacity and intention to defeat them. That is the core essence of the rivalry.
Camilo Villarino, head of cabinet of the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, insisted on Spain's and the EU's intentions. "What is going to happen is that pieces are going to be moved on the chessboard for the communitisation of foreign policy," he explained. Qualified majority voting on foreign policy issues may be closer to becoming a reality by abandoning unanimous voting. The US is currently the only actor that can engage Ukraine and Russia in dialogue, but it is also the only one that can keep a military pulse on them. The real problem is Soviet military resilience, which is always tough and resilient.
Ukraine is totally different from Nagorno-Karabakh. The support of the Dombash population is more than 70 per cent in favour of Putin. They think they are stronger than the Europeans and will hold out longer. They are waiting for the US elections so that the EU will be caught between a rock and a hard place. Ukraine, if it were to join the EU, would be a problem like Cyprus. If Russia backs down Ukraine can join the EU, but not NATO.
The strategy with China is to establish it as a global partner. The Asian giant's vision and stance in the world has taken a 180-degree turn from being just a mercantile and economic competitor to fighting with Washington for world economic leadership. He added that we are a systemic rival in terms of principles and values. There are substantial differences.
After the recalibration of the world order following the invasion, it became clear that there was a rivalry that they [China] themselves were increasing, although they deny it. Their aim is to distance the EU from the US. The Union does not see China in the same way as America. While for the Union a conflict with China with military drift is possible but not likely; in Washington they see a possible and likely conflict which they are trying to delay as long as possible, knowing that it will be inevitable. They want to wait until they know they are going to win before engaging Beijing in a conflict on a global scale.
Villarino commented on how the Global South is concerned about the entry of the Wagner Group and the drift of an "auction market" to see who gets the region's security. Another of NATO's concerns is the fact that Algeria has increased its defence budget. Morocco, in the wake of the Abraham Accords, increased its military technology with Israel.
"Algeria is quantity and Morocco is quality," Camilo Villarino
The advance of troops is accompanied by a crucial internal disinformation campaign to raise awareness among its own citizens and gain support abroad, so there is another parallel strategy to the one clearly directed from the Kremlin. Are there mechanisms to counter the propaganda and disinformation of its campaigns? Will Russian society be able to withstand the hardships caused by the war? The Russian citizenry is the key barrier to their plans.
Daniel Markic, director of the Croatian National Intelligence Centre clarified that: "Russian propaganda can be compared to a viral pandemic. Since its development, they have been modifying it in order to spread it across the West.
To overcome it we have to be prepared, to confront and prevent it we have to know that the Russian anti-Western narrative has long-term goals. It is so developed that it is sometimes difficult to survive the Russian information virus. Disinformation is the basic pillar.
"The planned distribution of partially false information distributed by its defence systems is one of the best weapons of the former Soviet republic", Daniel Markic
Markic exemplified how Russian propaganda works. In the KGB in 1992 it was declassified how the Russians sought to create in people a bad image of the West under the Soviet prism. Russian activity includes all the classic standards of propaganda, as we see today in Russia Today with the theme of Russian assistance and aid in the pandemic, through the distribution of medical supplies and vaccines. Hybrid action is the main actor in Russian disinformation.
In 2021, Putin published an essay on the historical unity of Russia and Ukrainians saying that they are one nation and that Ukraine is a product of Russia. The aim was to have a historical justification for invading. Planting the seeds of doubt in Western institutions is the goal of Russian propaganda. They seek to destabilise. They used the pandemic to whitewash their regimes. The limit of Russian propaganda came on the day of the invasion. When we talk about Russian hybrid warfare, one must also mention the members of Russian intelligence who camouflage themselves under the cloak of diplomacy.
Sergio Sánchez, a communications and security expert, pointed out that in European society there is a culture of suspicion, a fact that makes us both more gullible and more suspicious. The tools are the same as those of information. The importance of aesthetics as a synthesis of the good and the true. Disinformation tends to be unattractive. Verification is a sector that magnifies small details and can be counterproductive because it serves as a loudspeaker for it.
The fact that today's societies are heterogeneous at all levels is one of their main characteristics. In this context, the Internet, a technological product that these societies have appropriated, is equally broad, complex and diverse in its applications, as well as empowering. Of the hundreds of paradoxes about our relationship with the Web that we can find, we have seen only three here. In the first instance, we see differences between citizens and government in how they use the internet; for both groups, it serves as a mechanism for information and as a tool for legitimisation, but mainly for exposure.
Public opinion has misinterpreted the power of using the internet to foster civil mobility and pressure the powerful classes as mediatisation of public affairs when they are not. Although we are digital citizens, our roles are limited to disseminating information, clicking to read content or chasing and threatening politicians rather than creating and defending our institutions. We seek virtual justice first. On the other hand, governments around the world are moving to restrict freedom of information and the right to connect in favour of greater control, coupled with rampant persecution of those who seek to know what we do with it. As a result, public intrusion into private affairs is unlikely to diminish in the coming years.
General Carlos Javier Frías, director of the Army School, theorised on propaganda and the uses of disinformation for whom "it is as old as history itself". "It has always existed and has always been used," he added.
The current boom is due to the interest of the citizenry because, with the spread of democracies, the population has more power, so the people have more weapons to not give in to what the leaders think, as was the case with kingdoms. Today's media are so varied and far-reaching that the influence is brutal. Since the advent of the smart phone and the internet, anyone has global capacity.
"Reporting used to be worth millions of euros, now it's worth hundreds", Carlos Javier Frías
When starting a campaign it is important to have the story as if it were a simple tale: bad guys versus good guys. The medicine is education. Putin's war of invasion seems to have persuaded European public opinion that resources must be allocated to the armed forces and a strong defence system to counter new threats. What are the main security and defence challenges facing Europe and how should they be addressed?
Admiral Juan Francisco Martínez Núñez, Secretary General for Defence Policy (SEGENPOL), a reference in Spain in defence matters, confirmed that "the security system pursues peace". The attitude of the Euro-Atlantic community is commendable. "Deterrence has come too late". Autarchies lack information because they lack freedom and information does not get through. The combination of dialogue and force is a fine art, which unfortunately cannot be pedagogised much because it yields results in the long run. Without strength and determination to back it up, it leads to a helpless situation. The tendency in the West to show excessive strength makes others feel weak or second-class citizens. Spanish support is the most agile and discreet of all, and it is effective because we cannot give much, but we give what is really needed".
The admiral insisted that the sustained effort is the greatest sacrifice that European society will have to make, but above all, what will be needed is strong, common leadership with a broad vision.
"Without good leadership, society will suffer", Juan Francisco Martínez Núñez
Javier Solana, former Secretary General of NATO and former High Representative for the CFSP and President of EsadeGeo, spoke of improving the functioning of European and Spanish defence so that they go hand in hand. We Europeans will be able to hold on to what we have committed ourselves to. Everything we do is a joint effort. Sacrifice is inevitable, but it is supported by pedagogy. European action is based on doing. The idea of interdependence was to avoid war. Today they go to war because one side is super-dependent on the other. As in the case of Germany and Russia. When one becomes dependent there can be war. Equality between countries is the best guarantee for peace. In Denmark the global south voted to condemn Russia, but did not support sanctions. The step to come together is that societies learn and pedagogy.
According to Solana, it is imperative to take every precaution to avoid a conflict between the US and China or between the US and China, as neither country is capable of maintaining open fronts in Asia and the Ukrainian conflict, however strong it may be. He cautioned against this and the likelihood of an armistice, saying that it is more challenging in this case than in others, such as the wars in Korea or Israel, for example, because in the case of Ukraine "the armistice line is very similar to the bottom line" of conflict resolution. The former NATO Secretary General applauded Spain's actions, as well as those of its armed forces, and also highlighted the strengths of the EU, and more specifically of its "union", in the face of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
On the other hand, he pointed out that 60% of arms in Europe are imported, and he believes that production should be encouraged to stay in Europe; "we will have to do something so that we Europeans can also have production", he said. The cost of rebuilding Ukraine will amount to "millions and millions", according to Solana.
"we European and Spanish citizens have to prepare ourselves morally for the sacrifice we will have to make", Javier Solana
CLOSING SPEECH
Diego Carcedo, President of the Association of European Journalists
"The war is affecting everyone. We will not be able to provide a solution to the problem that worries us. Regarding the concern about how long the war may last, I thank Solana for making such a positive intervention. From my personal experience of reporting wars, I know that it is very difficult to bring it to an end. Unfortunately in the current war, we regret that in a year and a half no idea or initiative has been formed to try to end it, at least to stop the armistice. As far as we are concerned, we must recognise how the vision of the Spanish armed forces has improved in the world and especially in Europe. It is gratifying to be recognised by the rest of the world".
