The geostrategic shift in the Middle East and North Africa marks the summer of 2020
The summer of 2020 is already history for the Middle East. In mid-August the Emirates and Israel made an announcement which, although it was foreseeable, is still historic. The Gulf country, one of the most economically and technologically advanced in the region, was becoming the third Arab nation, after Egypt and Jordan, to recognise Israel and establish diplomatic relations. This is evidence of an unprecedented geostrategic turnaround in the Middle East. "The Palestinian cause has lost the centrality it has had until now. For the Gulf countries, the main threat to their security now comes from Iran, which is why they are putting all their efforts into containing the action of the regime," said Jesús Núñez Villaverde, co-director of the Institute of Studies on Conflicts and Humanitarian Action (IECAH) and a retired economist and military officer, during a virtual conference organised this Tuesday by Casa Árabe.
The health crisis has not stopped the geopolitical events that are taking place at full speed in the Middle East and North Africa. The war in Libya, the dispute over the exploitation of resources in the eastern Mediterranean, the Iranian threat and the delicate situation of the anti-nuclear pact with Iran, the reappearance of the French president in Beirut after the explosion... are some of the issues that have made the headlines this summer. The conflicts have not gone on holiday and the Middle East has given much to talk about in recent months.
The Emirates is already preparing to enter a new phase of trade agreements. "The country has gained credit in Washington and will allow them to have a good image, both with Trump and Biden. For the United States the agreement has also been a diplomatic success", said Kristina Kausch, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels and a specialist in geopolitics in the Middle East. What remains in the air after the important agreement is the Palestinian position. Despite this, the Emirates has committed itself to continue working to enable the Palestinians to find their place in the region.
North Africa has become a focus for insecurity that is getting worse every day. Jihadist groups have taken advantage of the summer and the virus to strengthen themselves in the Sahel. Mali has recently suffered a coup d'état and Libya continues to be fragmented between two political legitimacies, that of Fayez Sarraj's government and that of the Tobruk parliament defended by Khalifa Haftar, and plunged into armed conflict. "The Arab Spring has been a failure. It has not brought the peace and prosperity that was hoped for", explained the researcher Kristina Kausch in a categorical manner. "Egypt began a path towards democracy which was soon frustrated by the coup d'état of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi", pointed out Jesús Núñez Villaverde. This expert has criticised the excessive use of military resources to tackle the security crisis.
His fellow debater also agreed on this point. "Armies do not solve people's everyday problems. A new approach is needed to start solving the situation that is stifling them", said Kaush, who emphasised that if this change does not take place, it will not be possible to solve the problems.
The situation in Lebanon has bottomed out this summer. The economic and social crisis, the coronavirus and the sectarian conflict have been compounded by the destruction of part of Beirut following a major explosion that has devastated part of Beirut. "This was the last straw for the Lebanese, who have been living under the authority of different sectarian groups for years. The population is totally fed up", explained Jesús Núñez Villaverde.
The arrival of the French president in Lebanon after the tragic explosion has revived misgivings about French colonisation, which Lebanese politicians have rejected. Even so, international aid will be essential to the reconstruction of Lebanon, which will be forced to carry out major economic and political reforms in the coming years if it is to emerge from the quagmire that has led it to become the most indebted nation in the Arab world.
The conflict between Greece and Turkey is about borders and national sovereignty. "Since the 90s, there was a phase of relaxation between Turkey and Greece that has now been blown up", Kristina Kausch explains. The military escalation has resulted in the sending of ships to the area, prospecting by Turkey, and military by Greece. "It is a clash between NATO allies and this is very paradoxical. There are big security implications", the analyst said. The United States has shown its support for Greece, but has remained absent from this clash, so that the Europeans have to deal with Turkish expansionism in the Mediterranean by their own means, at least for the time being.
