UN vote close to validating Morocco's sovereignty over Sahara

The United Nations Security Council is close to approving a new resolution on the conflict in Western Sahara. This new text would officially endorse the Moroccan Autonomy Plan for the region proposed by King Mohamed VI of Morocco in 2007 as the most ‘realistic, effective and credible’ way to resolve the conflict, which has been going on for more than five decades.

These advances are the result of diplomatic efforts by King Mohammed VI and the Moroccan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with Nasser Bourita as a key figure in Moroccan foreign policy.

With the explicit support of the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Russia, together with China's opinion advocating a resolution based on dialogue, Morocco has managed to show that the separatist vision of the Polisario Front, Algeria's armed wing in the conflict, is not a formula that guarantees lasting peace and an end to the conflict.

More than 20 countries in the European bloc and more than 120 countries globally have officially recognised Morocco's Autonomy Plan as the best solution. In addition to states, international organisations have expressed their support for the Moroccan initiative.

Likewise, more than 30 countries have established consulates in Dajla and El Aaiún, the main cities in the Western Sahara region, which are increasingly close to officially becoming the Southern Provinces of Morocco.

This was acknowledged by a European diplomat at the United Nations headquarters in New York, who summarised: ‘What Morocco has achieved in the Security Council is the culmination of a real diplomatic doctrine that has made the Moroccan Western Sahara a pillar of its foreign policy. Today, there is no doubt that the only viable political solution is autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty.’

However, the decisive turning point for Morocco has been the recent express support of the Trump administration. According to the White House, the draft resolution proposes to extend the mandate of MINURSO for one year and reaffirms that Morocco is the sole representative of the territory.

However, the approval of this plan requires at least the votes of nine of the 15 members of the United Nations Security Council and that none of the permanent members – the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom and France – exercise their right of veto.

This requirement marks a decisive process for the continuity and recognition of the plan presented, which focuses international attention on the conflict in the region.

The current diplomatic scenario reflects a diverse set of positions among the countries that make up the Security Council. In this context, the positions of the permanent and non-permanent members will influence the possible ratification of the resolution.

The distribution of votes and their positions reveals the alliances and tensions surrounding the debate on the Moroccan Sahara, showing a cautious balance between direct support, abstentions and tacit opposition.

Among the five permanent members, the United States stands out for its strong support for the Autonomy plan, being also the main promoter and sponsor of the text for the resolution.

France, for its part, maintains constant and traditional support, having recognised Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara. The United Kingdom takes a more moderate stance, but aligns itself in favour of the autonomy initiative.

China takes a balanced approach, showing a tendency to abstain during the vote. Similarly, Russia expresses strategic neutrality, which could also translate into abstention.

Among the non-permanent members for 2025, Algeria is positioned as an interested party and opponent of the text, with plans to abstain, according to the media outlet Al-Khabar. South Korea shows neutrality, although with support for the Autonomy initiative.

Denmark, initially opposed in 2004 on the grounds that Morocco's presence in the Sahara was illegal, has evolved towards recognising Autonomy as a serious and reliable contribution to the conflict in 2024. Greece discreetly backs Rabat, supporting a serious approach to Autonomy. Guyana, on the other hand, maintains a non-aligned position and has recognised the Polisario Front since 1979.

With regard to non-permanent members for 2026, Pakistan presents itself as a staunch partner of Morocco, supporting its territorial integrity. Panama renewed its support for Moroccan autonomy and suspended relations with the Polisario Front in 2024. Sierra Leone also strengthened its support for Rabat by establishing a consulate in Dakhla.

Slovenia is aligned with the European Union, clearly supporting the autonomy proposal. Finally, Somalia shows support for the autonomy plan, joining the list of countries with consular representation in Dakhla.

The combination of committed allies and cautious partners sustains Morocco in a strengthened diplomatic position, consolidating the legitimacy of its autonomy project under national sovereignty.

Three of them have expressed their firm support for Morocco, Russia has indicated that the Moroccan solution is the most viable, and China advocates a solution based on dialogue, so the Moroccan Autonomy Plan proposal is close to becoming a reality.

The text, which is expected to be approved by the Security Council, is based on the conduct of the conflict surrounding the Moroccan Autonomy Plan; the necessary consideration of establishing a final political solution; the extension of the MINURSO mandate; and the willingness of member countries to welcome all actors involved in resolving the conflict.

However, this has not been without controversy. Algeria, and therefore the Polisario Front, expressed their disagreement with the text proposed by the United States, which supports the Moroccan solution, arguing that it would ‘violate the right of self-determination of peoples’.

Algeria has thus sought to advocate for possible African support, arguing that the vast majority of countries on the continent have, at some point in their recent history, had to invoke that right to end colonialism. However, the Algerian proposal has lacked any support.

The setback suffered by the government of Abdelmadjid Tebboune following Russia's support for Morocco's initiative has been addressed by its Foreign Minister, Ahmed Attaf, who met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, to try, as China has indicated, to ‘advocate for a negotiated solution that satisfies both parties’.

During that telephone meeting, Attaf encountered China's rejection of a separatist solution, a fact that has possibly marked the end of the conflict and confirmed that Algeria's international isolation and the deaths of hundreds of people in the Sahara could have been avoided had a solution been reached.

The growing acceptance of the Moroccan approach, based on realism and consensus, is a far cry from the old demands for referendums and separatist slogans, which have lost political weight. Despite attempts at misinformation by the Algerian media, which speak of far-reaching amendments to the proposal in coordination with US officials, these versions seek to delay the process and do not reflect the international support for Morocco.

King Mohammed VI has emphasised sovereignty over the Sahara as a fundamental pillar of Moroccan foreign policy, making it clear that any alliance must respect the territorial integrity of the Kingdom. This message has been endorsed by major powers such as the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Spain, which have expressed explicit support for the autonomy initiative as the only basis for negotiations.

The corroboration of the five member countries of the Security Council confirms the opening of a new scenario that sets in motion a new stage in the Maghreb, consolidating Rabat as a key player for stability and a reliable partner on the international political stage.