Iran only understands the language of force

Four months have passed since the dust settled at the Vienna negotiating table. The Iranian regime makes various excuses, sets a precondition one day, backs out the next, says it will go to Vienna, but does not. 

The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visited Tehran to discuss the inspection of nuclear sites, but the Karadj site remains closed to him. The US secretary of state warned that the nuclear deal (JCPOA) was approaching the point of no return. Troika diplomats described the situation as 'vital' on the eve of the EU representative's visit to Iran. Its head, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, travelled to Washington to meet with Antony Blinken, warning that 'time is running out'. 

Tehran claims to have agreed to hold talks in Brussels on 21 October, the date of the Vienna talks, but Europe has denied this; it is clear that there will be no negotiations. US senators met with the IAEA director general to discuss the Iranian issue, after which pressure mounted. The US Congress, Arab countries and Israel are also pressuring the White House to deny concessions to Tehran. In New York, the Iranian foreign minister demanded the delivery of $10 billion to start negotiations, a way of gauging the West. Such is the chaotic state of negotiations on the nuclear dossier, with Supreme Leader Khamenei in Iran dreaming of a return to the 2015 deal. An agreement that has allowed it to sell oil and recover its blocked money, and which has not prevented its regional influence and missile development, not to mention the multiplication of militias in the region. Indeed, this regime is incapable of accepting the 2021 agreement that provides for the complete dismantling of the nuclear and missile programme and an end to regional interference. These elements are linked to its survival. 

According to an analyst who prefers to remain anonymous, the regime sees these conditions as a cup of poison. But will it be able to resist Western pressure in the explosive situation of Iranian society, or will it go so far as to risk a referral to the UN Security Council with its serious consequences? 

By prevaricating, he wants to get the amount of enriched uranium needed for the bomb, while gaining concessions to loosen the stranglehold of sanctions. According to the director of an Iranian research centre under former President Khatami, coordinated international pressure, economic collapse and fear of a new uprising will force Khamenei to submit to the demands of the P5+1. Just as Khomeini finally complied with UN Resolution 598 during the Iran-Iraq war and the release of the US hostages. The Iranian regime only understands the language of force. 

Hamid Enayat, Iran expert 

Article previously published in the Tribune de Geneve