And now Chad?

In recent months we have seen coups d'état in Mali, Guinea, Sudan and the latest in Burkina Faso. They all have a common denominator: the economic crisis and popular discontent, also marked by jihadist terrorism, immigration and organised crime. Not only are these coups d'état in such a short period of time worrying, but also the contagion effect that could be created in other African countries in the absence of an international response. 

The overthrow of democratic governments in former French colonies in West Africa is becoming a trend and the problem in these countries is ultimately the legitimacy of the state and the citizens' perception of whether their government is valid and capable of meeting their needs. 

In Chad in recent days dozens of people have been killed and injured during demonstrations in several major cities, including the capital N'Djamena. The forces of law and order tried to disperse the demonstrators with tear gas, and when this did not help, they used firearms. The demonstrations turned into riots. Protesters attacked the Security Forces with knives and stones, and then destroyed police stations and administrative buildings. 

The reason for the protest was the desire of the transitional military council to extend the mandate of interim President Mahamat Idris Deby and the transitional period for another two years. The opposition protested and urged people to take to the streets. Mahamat came to power in April 2021 after his father, Idris Deby, died of injuries sustained during a counter-terrorism operation. 

A large part of the population is demanding the resignation of General Mahamat Déby and the handover of power to a civilian, thus calling into question the conclusions of the inclusive national dialogue. 

It is worth noting that Mahamat Idris Deby has close ties with France, and with the worsening situation in Chad, he risks losing another ally in the region. 

But even worse is the internal situation where the assassinations committed in recent days may cause popular uprisings and lead to the fall of the regime. The events of 10, 11 and 12 July 2020 in Mali are a notable example. If General Mahamat does not take this new situation into account, his time at the helm of Chad risks coming to an end. 

If Deby falls, France's best ally in the Sahel will fall, and it seems that rather than guaranteeing respect for the rule of law in Chad, he is more intent on guaranteeing the country's stability at all costs.  

Proof of this is the shooting of the security forces against the crowd, fifty people were killed and France is accused of being behind the repression of the population, to which the spokesperson of the French Foreign Ministry added: "France played no role in these events, which are part of Chadian internal politics". 

However, Francophobia is spreading day by day in the Sahel, so that the idea is that French policy in Africa is neither for human rights nor democracy, but to protect its interests and outside the regime, even the most bloodthirsty one. 

In the case of Chad, the population thinks that France is fully and totally responsible for everything that happens in the country because it prevents the Chadian people from freely electing civilians to lead their country by doubling, arming and imposing soldiers subject to its wishes. 

It should be recalled that during the demonstrations in Chad and unlike in Mali and Burkina Faso, no Russian flag was displayed during the protests (yet). Chadians are demonstrating with their country's flag at the moment. 

The deteriorating security context in these countries has exasperated both the civilian population and the defence and security forces. However, the failure of democracies cannot justify the legitimacy of ruling through coups as we have seen in other countries in the region. 

Various international organisations protecting human rights have denounced that in Chad during these days live ammunition, torture and arbitrary arrests are ongoing and have already caused several deaths and serious injuries. Ambulances carrying the wounded are reportedly under fire from law enforcement and security forces. A journalist was also shot dead. Targeted kidnappings occur overnight and the security situation is total. 

Violence against unarmed demonstrators is not tolerable and the disproportionate use of force constitutes a violation of the fundamental freedoms enshrined in the Chadian Constitution and in international and regional legal instruments ratified by Chad. 

There is an urgent need for the African Union, the United Nations, the European Union and countries with strategic interests in Chad, in particular France, to act urgently to put an end to the violence against the civilian population in Chad. 

The European Union has condemned the violence perpetrated in several Chadian cities, the repression of demonstrations and the excessive use of force which constitute serious violations of the freedoms of expression and demonstration and undermine the ongoing transition. 

France's strategy in the Sahel will continue to fail as long as it does not take citizens into account. In Chad, the population perceives that France wants to impose a man against the opinion of the people. And in Mali it wants the fall of a man against the opinion of the people. In both cases, the people have the last word. 

However, France remains committed to the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea and the Lake Chad region with all partners committed to stability and the fight against terrorism, and will remain so for as long as it maintains interests in the area. 

France after its exit from Mali deployed southwards and is now in Chad and Niger, essential partners in this area, and as it did in Mali will intensify its efforts to train its forces in the fight against terrorism. 

The question is, will Chad follow the same path as Mali, will France also have to leave Chad, will Russia come in later to replace France, is it part of Russia's strategy to take over all the Sahel countries through which all organised crime routes to Europe run, and is it part of Russia's strategy to take over all the Sahel countries through which all organised crime routes to Europe run? 

Let's look more at the southern flank, which is becoming more destabilised by the day, and Russia knows that we have all our capabilities focused on the eastern flank.

María del Pilar Rangel Rojas is Professor of International Public Law and International Relations at the University of Malaga.