Donald Trump breaks the status quo in the Arab world

Donald Trump's political career may not yet be over, as his detractors and adversaries in the United States, both Democrats and Republicans, and the world, predict. He may attempt a new candidacy in the near future, uncertain in its outcome and difficult to predict. 

What can be sure, however, is that Trump has left a mark on history: he has managed to upset the political balances in the Maghreb and the Middle East with a stroke of the pen, in the real and figurative sense of the word. By forcing the US administration to recognise Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara and securing diplomatic recognition of Israel by a country of the size and political and religious influence of Morocco, Mr Trump has opened a new chapter in the Arab world.

The úkase (executive order) signed by the president still in office will have many consequences throughout the region and in the countries concerned. 

In Morocco the repercussions are far-reaching. By recognising Moroccan sovereignty over the former Spanish colony, the question of the Sahara conflict is already being raised, in other words. The USA carries such weight on the international scene that neither the UN, nor the European Union, nor the other multilateral organisations with influence can reduce Trump's gesture to mere bravado. The very meaning of including the problem of Western Sahara in the UN Security Council and General Assembly as a "territorial conflict" no longer makes sense. As Trump sees it, it continues to be a conflict between two parties, the Moroccan government and the Polisario Front, but the latter is now showing itself to be "an armed secessionist movement", that is, it is an internal Moroccan conflict, which is the thesis he has defended since Spain handed over the administration of the territory to him in 1975. 

If the UN and the Security Council accept the US decision, they can continue to deal with the issue, but no longer as a "matter of decolonisation" or a "conflict over territorial sovereignty", but as an armed conflict, as it exists in many countries, including Mali, Libya, Niger, Nigeria, Yemen, Afghanistan and Syria. 

For Morocco, in addition to being a political and diplomatic victory, it will have consequences on its rearmament, as the United States will lift most of the obstacles to the acquisition of state-of-the-art weapons by the Alawite kingdom. The strategic alliance between Rabat and Washington, which is evidenced by the annual bilateral military manoeuvres and top-level antiterrorist cooperation, including the presence and illegal actions of the CIA on Moroccan territory, may reach the level of the United States with NATO members and Israel.

As seen by Washington, Morocco would have the right to retaliate if "the liberated territories" (Polisario's version), or "territories under Moroccan sovereignty" (Rabat's version), launch armed attacks on them. It is unlikely that the Moroccan armed forces will respond beyond mere deterrence; and of course they will refrain from bombing Polisario's rearguard in the camps of Tindouf, Algerian territory.

However, what Washington will not be able to prevent is the internal political recomposition in Morocco, with a moderate Islamist PJD movement in government and now in free fall, to the detriment of the more radical Justice and Spirituality which will benefit, and a nationalist-laic pole resulting from the foreseeable crises of the traditional parties and the emergence of new forces.

US investment in the Sahara, via its consulate in Dakhla, will serve as a cushion and hope for the tens of thousands of Saharawis seeking a future in their own land.

Furthermore, the US position will force Algeria to further increase its rearmament at the worst possible moment in its financial resources and will open the way to new legislative and presidential elections in order to overcome the institutional weakness of a country with a head of state in endless convalescence. 

The best option for the army, the backbone of power in Algeria, is to allow a single candidate representative of the popular Hirak movement, which wishes to democratise the country, to accept the historical reality of the political function of the armed forces; an alliance between the military and the Hirak, which has not been possible so far owing to the permanence at the top of the military of important nuclei of the previous regime. Only this alliance between civilians and the military can bring stability to the country and lay the foundations for a negotiated win-win solution to the conflict in Western Sahara and the rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, which is detrimental to the development of both.

The Polisario Front has benefited from Trump's proclamation because it has enabled it to get off the ground from a deep crisis of leadership with the emergence of other Saharawi political and social movements outside its tutelage, and to generate a euphoric climate of hundreds of young people in the camps eager to join the ranks of the old Saharawi Liberation Army formed by the Polisario under the tutelage of Algeria.

The new framework of the Palestinian-Israeli problem will also have repercussions on the Maghreb. Although appearances suggest that Algeria is the winner for having supported the Palestinian resistance movement for over six decades and the loser to Morocco for its political and diplomatic rapprochement to "the Zionist entity", the reality will be different in the medium term. Morocco will be able to lead a new relationship of forces between Israel and the Arab world, particularly if Saudi Arabia backs it as expected, on the basis of its religious function and its status as protector of the holy city of Jerusalem. The Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has their support, which will enable him to gain strength against the more radical Hamas movement, which is supported by Iran. 

The 600,000 Israelis of Moroccan origin play a leading role in Israel's political scene and are the most numerous component of the defence forces (the Tsahal army), both professionally and among the over half a million reservists. Israelis of Moroccan origin have never lost their Moroccan nationality, which cannot be renounced, and visit Morocco in large numbers on pilgrimages to shrines to coincide with Jewish religious holidays. Morocco is the only Arab country that has this status of bridge between religions and cultures, which enables it to play a significant role in the Palestinian-Israeli question, which underlies the conflict between Israeli Jews and Palestinian Christians or Muslims. 

A week before Trump's proclamation that he considered "a new historic victory", Mohammed VI defined his position on the conflict: "the solution lies in two states, and the Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem". This fact was silenced by Donald Trump's determination to recognise Jerusalem as the "eternal capital of the State of Israel". The cards are all on the table, and win-win solutions are all possible in both conflicts.