The Abraham Accords: geopolitical change in the Middle East
The recent agreement between Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain can be striking when one considers Israel's historical past in the region. Just over half a century ago these countries were faced with the creation of the State of Israel (1948) and swore allegiance to Palestine, a territory that with this agreement they may appear to have betrayed. This is where the magnitude of the Abraham Accords resides, how can we explain that countries previously at odds with Israel have become the third and fourth country respectively to establish diplomatic relations? Three factors have contributed to this geopolitical change in the Middle East.
A traditional Arab proverb sums up the first factor: "The enemy of my enemy is my friend". For years Iran has been one of the main concerns for the countries of the Middle East. On the one hand, the Iranian desire for hegemony in the Middle East under Persian rule and, consequently, a Shiite Muslim predominance represents a threat to all Arab countries with a Sunni majority, such as Saudi Arabia, a country that is antagonistic to Iran par excellence. As for Israel respect, the Jewish country is one of Iran's targets and is increasingly felt to be next. With Iranian interference in Iraq and Syria and the presence of the Hezbollah - Iranian proxy - in Lebanon, Iran has virtually 'built' a bridge to Israel that also affects all those countries that are found on the Sinai Peninsula and are not adept at the idea of a possible Persian Caliphate. Therefore, the promises of a stable peace and cooperation between these countries can be a key first step in addressing the Persian giant.
In addition, it is worth mentioning the evolution of Israel over the years. Although the survival of the Jewish State was highly linked to the support of the United States at the beginning, today it has a technological and military superiority which is commendable. The 'start-up nation' par excellence has witnessed a development which has guaranteed to be recognized in record time as a major potential technology at the level of the United States or China. As for its military power, it is not a surprise. For decades, Israel has lived on constant alert to the possibility of an attack of any kind on its immediate borders and this has been reflected in its commitment to defence. In 2018 Israel invested a 11.06% of public expenditure on defence compared to 3.09% in Spain. At present, the Jewish country is one of the few legally nuclear-armed countries, which is an important complement to the cooperation interest that Israel can generate.
Finally, it is important to highlight the demographic factor. 70% of the population of the Gulf is less than 30 years old and therefore the wars against Israel represents a historical fact and not a memory. This has given place to a new perspective in which Israel, that has already demonstrated a military and technological superiority, can be a very attractive ally. Since the outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2011 many of the countries in the Middle East and the Maghreb have known decadence and this is also how the young population has come to know their country. The promise of peace and, above all, an increase in opportunities is an incentive interesting for present and future generations. The UAE and Bahrain have given the first step, but it is not unreasonable to say that other countries will follow the same course. Saudi Arabia, especially when a changeover takes place in the country's leadership, is one of the candidates to be next.
The prospect of cooperation and stability in the region not only benefits the neighbouring countries. Conflicts that arise in the Middle East can impact on the Maghreb, the advanced border of the European Union and the NATO, which is also Spain's. This agreement therefore affects positively to the commercial, diplomatic and security interests of the countries that make up these organizations. The evolution of UAE’s investment in Spanish strategic sectors underlines the link of this geopolitical reality. Supporting this type of agreement benefits all actors involved, primary and third parties.