Holding back the urge to let the Doberman loose
But the Iranian theocracy was careful to warn both Israel and its allies of its intentions. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi himself publicly called on Iran's enemies to "appreciate the responsible and proportionate action" of their massive attack, adding (for internal consumption and that of his own allies) that "if Israel in turn carries out a response bombing, it will receive a much greater attack", adding that US bases in the region will be targeted as a priority.
A diplomatic source has reportedly told Reuters that Tehran informed Turkey in advance of its bombing plans. In turn, the US informed Iran, via Ankara, that such an operation "would have to be carried out within certain limits". In short, no one can claim that the operation came as a surprise, so everything went according to plan. It would be very risky to say that it was not only planned but also approved by the parties concerned, but it almost makes one want to underline it.
It is certainly a milestone in the public eye that the regime of the Ayatollahs is launching 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles directly at Israel from its own territory. True promise honoured, then. Well answered by the anti-aircraft defence of Israel and allies, destroying 99% of such devices. Demonstration "urbi et orbi" of the effectiveness of Israel's defence systems. Consequence: not a single death as a result of such massive bombardment; and only one wounded, a poor seven-year-old Bedouin girl, the only direct victim of shrapnel from one of the only three projectiles that evaded the Israeli defensive shield.
And then? Well, back to the dialectical combat with promises and threats from both sides. Israel, with its war cabinet discussing what kind of operation it can undertake to contain Hezbollah in particular, which continues to harass northern Israel, which has had to evacuate more than 100,000 people to avoid the consequences of the Lebanese militia-party's attacks. At the same time, the allies will have to continue to deal with the Houthis in Yemen, who are also continuing to make navigation in the Red Sea almost impossible.
As for Hamas, Israel will certainly continue its operation to annihilate it. This weekend's events have served not only to divert the world's attention from Gaza. More than that, it has also provided Israel with a major moral victory when the narrative had made it virtually a ruthless executioner of the Gazan Palestinians. Iran's attack and its persistent threats serve as a test for Israel to demonstrate its right to defend itself, especially when its very existence is at stake.
Within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, the most radical voices are taking the opportunity to urge him to "seize the opportunity and launch an attack on Iran that will nip in the bud its nuclear arms race". This hypothesis certainly has more supporters than the Ben Gvirs or the Smotrichs. It is not, however, in the best interests of the United States, whose President Joe Biden is constantly tugging at the leash to keep Netanyahu from reigning supreme and turning the Middle East, intentionally or not, into a giant bonfire. The White House has already let Netanyahu know not to count on the US to participate in any kind of Israeli counter-offensive towards Iran.
As area expert Alan Pinkas says, "strategically, the chessboard is still intact. Iran has proven its capabilities, but also that it can be deterred by those of its adversary. In reality, the Iranian threat is going nowhere. But its sponsorship of terrorism and destabilisation will undoubtedly continue".
Also noteworthy was the support of the G-7, whose heads of state and government - Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the United States and the European Union - said after their video conference on Sunday that they were "prepared to take action against Iran in response to further destabilisation initiatives".