Morocco continues its upward trend, and following the completion of the 2023 PLF, which assesses a series of assumptions related to the national environment and elements of uncertainty regarding the country's development in the international arena, it has been estimated that the Kingdom's economic growth next year should stand at 4.5%.
According to the report, which estimated growth of 1.5% for this year, by 2023 cereal production is expected to reach 75 million quintals, the price of a tonne of butane gas is expected to reach $700 per tonne, the average price of a barrel of Brent 98.6 dollars and the dollar to dirham exchange rate 9.8 dirhams.
This increase in cereal production would generate a rise in agricultural value added that should grow by more than 12%, a situation that will be caused among other factors by the base effect due to the return to a normal season after this year of drought.
Non-agricultural value added should also continue to grow at a similar rate to this year, rising from 3.6% in 2022 to 3.8% in 2023.
This very positive dynamic, which according to the report, Morocco should experience next year, should also generate changes in international markets. Exports are expected to grow by 9.6%, whereas imports are expected to grow at a slower rate than last year.
The secondary and tertiary sectors should consolidate their growth rates already recorded in 2022 and improve further to 3.3 and 3.8% in 2023, respectively.
The increase in demand should be driven mainly by the contribution of exports, which, according to the report, will grow by almost 4%; this would represent a positive contribution to foreign trade and would generate GDP growth of around 0.5%.
As for final consumption demand, this should grow by around 2%, driven mainly by the increase in household consumption, which would stand at 1.3%; a trend to which gross fixed capital formation would also contribute 1.1%.
It should be noted that from 2024 onwards, the forecasts will include a correction of growth with the aim of stabilising at the level of previous years.